2017-2019年江西省流行性感冒时空聚集性分析  

Spatiotemporal clustering analysis of influenza in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019

作　　者：傅伟杰[1] 丁晟[1] 程慧健[1] 胡茂红[2] 章承峰[1] FU Wei-jie;DING Sheng;CHENG Hui-jian;HU Mao-hong;ZHANG Cheng-feng(Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangxi Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention,Nanchang 330029,China;Department of Scientific Education Information,Nanchang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanchang 330038,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所,南昌330029 [2]南昌市疾病预防控制中心科教信息科,南昌330038

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2022年第1期80-85,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：江西省科技厅重点研发计划(20203BBGL73162)。

摘　　要：目的分析江西省流行性感冒的流行病学特点和时空聚集性,为流感暴发和流行预警提供依据。方法对"中国传染病监测管理信息系统"中2017-2019年江西省报告的流感病例个案信息进行描述性分析和时空聚集性分析。结果 2017-2019年江西省存在流感冬春季季节性流行高峰;以赣南地区高发,年发病率均在全省平均发病率的2倍以上;15岁以下人群占比逐年升高,自2017年的53.90%升至2019年的72.24%。探测到四类时空聚集区域:一类聚集区域为2018年12月19日至2019年4月25日赣南地区的16个县区(RR=9.72,LLR=15 061.27,P<0.001),二类聚集区域为2019年12月18日至2019年12月31日赣北地区的13个县区(RR=20.68,LLR=3 867.86,P<0.001),三类聚集区域为2019年1月9日至2019年3月27日赣东北地区的18个县区(RR=3.13,LLR=1 297.439,P<0.001),四类聚集区域为2019年12月2日至2019年12月31日赣西地区的17个县区(RR=5.09,LLR=1 233.47,P<0.001)。结论 2017-2019年江西省流感发病呈现较明显的时空聚集性,但是不同地区的聚集时段有差异,聚集时段主要集中在冬末和春季。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal aggregation of influenza in Jiangxi Province, and to provide the basis for influenza outbreak and epidemic early warning. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis and spatiotemporal clustering analysis were conducted on the influenza case information reported in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019 in the "China Infectious Disease Surveillance and Management Information System". Results From 2017 to 2019, there was an epidemic peak in winter and spring every year in Jiangxi Province, with the highest incidence in southern Jiangxi Province. The annual incidence was more than twice of the provincial average;the proportion of people under 15 years old increased year by year, from 53.90% in 2017 to 72.24% in 2019.Retrospective spatiotemporal scanning analysis detected four types of spatiotemporal aggregation regions: the first type of agglomeration areas 16 counties and districts in southern Jiangxi Province on December 19, 2018 solstice on April 25, 2019(RR=9.72, LLR=15 061.27, P<0.001), the second type of clustering area were the 13 counties in the north of Jiangxi Province(RR=20.68, LLR=3 867.86, P<0.001);the third type of clustering areas were 18 counties and districts in the northeast of Jiangxi Province(RR=3.13, LLR=1 297.439, P<0.001);the foreh type of clustering region were 17 counties and districts in western Jiangxi on December 2, 2019(RR=5.09, LLR=1 233.47, P<0.001). Conclusion From 2017 to 2019, the incidence of influenza in Jiangxi Province showed obvious spatiotemporal clustering, but the clustering time was different among different regions. Influenza was mainly in the late winter and spring.

关 键 词：流感 流行病学 时空扫描 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]