国债“入富”后,如何看待外资对我国债市影响——基于外资流动与国债收益率关系的研究  

The Impact of Foreign Capital on China’s Bond Market ——A Study of the Relationship Between Foreign Capital Flows and Treasury Yields

作　　者：王晨 袁海霞 

机构地区：[1]中诚信国际研究院

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2021年第11期1-11,共11页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：伴随中国债券市场对外开放逐步推进,外资持有我国债券规模持续增加,境外投资者已成为我国债券市场尤其是利率债市场的重要配置力量。我国国债正式纳入富时世界国债指数(WGBI),将对我国债市产生积极影响。本文从国债"入富"的角度出发,通过定性和定量两个方面研究国债"入富"对外资流动的影响以及外资持债变化对我国国债收益率的影响,认为国债"入富"将给我国债市带来增量资金,对债市收益率下行具有一定的推动作用,但海外环境对收益率的影响仍需聚焦中美政策、经济等方面。Along with the gradual opening of China’s bond market, foreign investors have become an important market force and their share of domestic bonds continues to increase. The formal inclusion of China’s government bonds in the FTSE Russell’s World Government Bond Index will have a further positive effect on the domestic bond market.This paper examines the impact on capital flows from the inclusion of Chinese government bonds in the FTSE Russell index. It also assesses the effects of foreign bond holdings on China’s treasury bond yields. The paper finds that the index inclusion will bring incremental capital to China’s bond market and contribute to the downward movement of bond market yields. Nonetheless, the impact on yields still largely depends on government policies in China and the US and the health of these two key economies.

关 键 词：富时罗素 收益率 海外资金流动 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F832.6