对扩张和危机的不同反应? 城乡差距在长期人口动态中的作用  

Differential responses to expansion and crisis? The role of urban-rural divides in long-term demographic dynamics

作　　者：卢卡•萨尔瓦蒂 龚华燕(译) Luca Salvati(University of Macerata)

机构地区：[1]意大利马切拉塔大学经济及法律系 [2]不详

出　　处：《国际社会科学杂志（中文版）》2021年第4期145-163,8,13,共21页International Social Science Journal（Chinese Edition）

摘　　要：发达国家的经济下行可能会影响人口动态,扩大人口趋势的地区差异,并巩固可进入地区和边缘地区的社会鸿沟。本研究提出了一个量化框架,分析经济扩张和衰退对希腊区域人口动态的潜在影响。选取的指标(人口密度、自然平衡和迁移平衡对总人口增长的贡献、总生育率和粗出生率、粗结婚率、每婚生育率和粗死亡率)被用来区分希腊长期过渡过程(1956—2017)与短期动态,其中后者以最近的经济扩张(2000—2008)和衰退(2009—2017)为特征。本研究分别计算了以雅典为中心的大都会区阿提卡(定居人数占全国30%以上)和希腊其他地区的指标,从而可以对城乡地区的社会人口动态进行详细分析。结果表明,希腊的区域人口趋势受到多种因素的影响,这些因素反映了长期的过渡力量、城市化/郊区化进程以及经济下行的短期影响。Economic downturns in advanced countries may influence demographic dynamics,increasing regional differences in population trends and consolidating social divides in accessible and marginal regions. The present study proposes a quantitative framework analysing the latent impact of economic expansions and recessions on regional population dynamics in Greece. Selected indicators(population density, contribution of natural balance and migration balance to total population growth, gross fertility rate and crude birth rate, crude marriage rate, births per marriage, and crude mortality rate) were used to distinguish long-term transitional processes(1956-2017) from short-term dynamics characterising the most recent economic expansion(2000-2008) and recession(2009-2017) in Greece. Indicators were calculated separately for Attica, a metropolitan region centred on Athens, where more than 30 per cent of country population was(and still is)settled, and the rest of Greece, allowing a detailed analysis of socio-demographic dynamics in urban and rural areas. Results of this study indicate that regional population trends in Greece were influenced by a combination of factors reflecting long-term transitional forces, urbanisation/suburbanisation processes, and short-term impact of economic downturns.

关 键 词：粗出生率 郊区化进程 大都会区 城乡差距 结婚率 粗死亡率 经济下行 人口密度 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学]