IPCC AR6 WGI报告的背景、架构和方法  

Interpretation of the IPCC AR6 WGI report in terms of its context,structure,and methods

作　　者：陈德亮[1] 赖慧文 CHEN Deliang;LAI Hui-Wen(Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden)

机构地区：[1]瑞典哥德堡大学地球科学系,瑞典哥德堡40530

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第6期636-643,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助(XDA20060400)。

摘　　要：IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组报告(简称报告)中提供了对气候系统和气候变化的最新物理解释,整合了来自古气候和仪器观测的多项证据、过程理解以及全球和区域的气候模拟,记录了气候科学的最新进展。报告旨在提供有关过去气候如何变化的事实,揭示人类活动在这些变化中所起的作用,并根据不同社会经济路径的排放情景对未来气候进行了预估。这些结果对于政策制定者来说很重要。它有助于减缓气候变化、根据灾害管理框架制定区域适应计划以及开展即将到来的2023年全球综合评估。本文聚焦该报告的背景、架构和方法,并介绍当前气候变化评估的主要进展。结果显示,与以前的评估报告相比,AR6提供了更综合实用的信息和认识,更加强调了区域气候变化,以及更好地约束了气候敏感度的估计。该报告最重要的结论之一是人类活动对气候变化的影响已从科学认知演变为不争的事实。The IPCC Working Group I(WGI)contributes to the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)with the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change,integrating multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate,observations,process understanding,and global and regional climate simulations,and documenting the latest advances in climate science.It aims to deliver relevant content and knowledge about how climate has changed in the past,and what role human activity has played in these changes,and what is to be expected in the future given a set of emission scenarios based on different socioeconomic paths we will choose.These are important and relevant for policymakers,including climate change mitigation,regional adaptation planning based on a risk management framework,and the global stocktake coming up in 2023.In this interpretation of the report,we intend to introduce the main features of the AR6 WGI report in terms of its context,structure,and methods.Compared with previous reports,AR6 offers more integrated and actionable information and understanding,greater emphasis on regional climate change,and better-constrained climate sensitivity estimates.One of the most important conclusions of this assessment is that the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact.

关 键 词：IPCC AR6 WGI报告 结构 背景 方法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]