IPCC AR6报告解读:人类活动对气候系统的影响  

Interpretation of IPCC AR6 on human influence on the climate system

作　　者：胡婷[1] 孙颖[1,2] HU Ting;SUN Ying(Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第6期644-651,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0605604);国家自然科学基金项目(42025503)。

摘　　要：2021年8月9日,IPCC发布了第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组报告,报告第三章“人类活动对气候系统的影响”定量评估了人类活动对气候系统的影响程度以及气候模式对观测到的平均气候、气候变化和气候变率的模拟性能。报告基于气候系统的多个圈层变量的综合评估明确指出,毋庸置疑的是,自工业化以来人为影响已经使大气、海洋和陆地升温;支撑本次评估的国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)气候模式模拟的大多数大尺度气候指标的近期平均气候,相比前一次评估报告(AR5)中的CMIP5模式结果有所改进。报告在更广泛的领域和区域提供了更多证据表明气候系统中的人类活动影响,但受制于观测、模式与过程认知的不足,在大气、海洋、冰冻圈、生物圈及气候变率模态的多个指标变化中人为影响的贡献方面仍然存在不确定性甚至缺少研究。The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)has been released on 9 August 2021.Chapter 3 of the report,entitled“human influence on the climate system”,has quantitatively assessed the human influence on climate system and the climate model representation of observed mean climate,changes and variability.The combined evidence from across the climate system clearly indicated that it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere,ocean and land,and that for most large-scale indicators of climate change,the simulated recent mean climate from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)climate models underpinning this assessment has improved compared to the CMIP5 models assessed in the AR5.With updated observation datasets and paleoclimate evidence,new modelling evidence,improved analysis methods,and deeper process understanding,the report has obtained more reliable and strong evidence of human influence on the climate system.However,uncertainties remain in quantification of the human influence on large-scale indicators of climate change in the atmosphere,ocean,cryosphere and at the land surface.And there is still a significant gap,after decades of works in this field.The limitation includes brevity of the observational records,poor model performance and limited process understanding.

关 键 词：检测归因 气候系统 人为贡献 模式评估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]