IPCC AR6报告解读:地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度  

Earth’s energy budget,climate feedbacks,and climate sensitivity

作　　者：张华[1,2,3] 王菲 赵树云[3,2] 谢冰 ZHANG Hua;WANG Fei;ZHAO Shu-Yun;XIE Bing(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Department of Atmospheric Science,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China;CMA‒NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [3]中国地质大学环境学院大气科学系,武汉430078 [4]中国气象局-南京大学气候预测研究联合实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第6期691-698,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603502);国家自然科学基金重点项目(91644211);中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2021KJ004)。

摘　　要：文中对IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组(WGI)报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫(ERF)为2.72[1.96~3.48]W/m^(2),其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32[3.03~3.61]W/m^(2),气溶胶的贡献为-1.1[-1.7~-0.4]W/m^(2)。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16[-1.81~-0.51]W/(m^(2)∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度(ECS)和瞬态气候响应(TCR)可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0[2.0~5.0]℃和1.8[1.2~2.4]℃。This work extracts the chapter seven of the IPCC AR6 working group I on the Earth’s energy budget,climate feedback,and climate sensitivity,and gives a concise summary on the new findings and conclusions on the topic.AR6 suggests that the effective radiative forcing(ERF)from anthropogenic activity over the industrial era is 2.72[1.96-3.48]W/m^(2).Changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols contribute to the total anthropogenic ERF with 3.32[3.03-3.61]W/m^(2) and-1.1[-1.7--0.4]W/m^(2),respectively.The net climate feedback parameter is assessed to be-1.16[-1.81--0.51]W/(m^(2)∙℃),and clouds remain the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in climate feedbacks.Equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and transient climate response(TCR)are effective measures that can be used to assess the response of global mean surface air temperature to forcing factors.The best estimates of ECS and TCR are 3.0[2.0-5.0]℃and 1.8[1.2-2.4]℃,respectively.

关 键 词：有效辐射强迫(ERF) 气候反馈 平衡态气候敏感度(ECS) 瞬态气候响应(TCR) 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]