冰冻圈变化的可预测性、不可逆性和深度不确定性  

The predictability,irreversibility and deep uncertainty of cryospheric change

作　　者：效存德[1] 杨佼 张通 苏勃 王磊[1] 许茜 闫展 郝海瑞 黄怡 XIAO Cun-De;YANG Jiao;ZHANG Tong;SU Bo;WANG Lei;XU Qian;YAN Zhan;HAO Hai-Rui;HUANG Yi(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2022年第1期1-11,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1406100);中国科学院(A类)战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA19070103);北京师范大学引进人才项目(12807-312232101);国家自然科学基金委重大项目(41690145)。

摘　　要：IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组报告对气候系统各要素的可预测性(predictability)、不可逆性(irreversibility)和深度不确定性(deep uncertainty)给出了新认识。文中基于此对全球冰冻圈变化的上述三方面加以总结和归纳。总体来看,无论何种排放情景,半球和全球尺度上冰冻圈各要素于21世纪均具有一定的可预测性,即均向融化或退化方向变化,且具有不可逆性;但在区域尺度、短时间尺度和百年以上时间尺度上,不同冰冻圈要素或因内部变率大、或因响应机制复杂而存在可逆、可预测性差乃至深度不确定性难题。The IPCC AR6 Working Group I gives new understandings of the predictability,irreversibility and deep uncertainty of various elements of the climate system.This paper summarizes the above three aspects of cryospheric changes in global and regional scales.In general,on the hemispheric and global scales,regardless of the emission scenario,all cryospheric elements could have certain predictability in the 21st century,i.e.,they all change in the direction of melting or degradation,mostly irreversible.However,on the regional scale,short time scales and long-term commitment,different cryospheric elements may exhibit large internal variability,poor predictability and even deep uncertainty.

关 键 词：冰冻圈 IPCC AR6 解读 新认知 知识差距 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]