基于改进Event模型的航路飞行过程垂直碰撞风险研究  

Research on Vertical Collision Risk of Air Route Flight Based on Improved Event Model

作　　者：岳睿媛 苏彬 朱新平[3] 曹哲 YUE Ruiyuan;SU Bin;ZHU Xinping;CAO Zhe(School of Computer Science,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,China;Scientific Bureau,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,China;School of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院计算机学院,广汉618307 [2]中国民用航空飞行学院科研处,广汉618307 [3]中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院,广汉618307

出　　处：《航空工程进展》2022年第1期129-134,共6页Advances in Aeronautical Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金民航联合基金项目(U1733105);四川省中央引导地方科技发展专项项目(2020ZYD094);四川省科技计划项目(2020YFS0541);四川省大学生创新创业训练项目(S202110624104)。

摘　　要：随着民航空域运行的日益繁忙,如何从量化分析的角度构建有效合理的数学模型对航路飞行碰撞风险进行量化评估,提高航路规划与管理的科学性是业界面临的重要问题。提出基于改进Event模型的航路飞行过程垂直碰撞风险评估方法,用符合航空器在空间上速度矢量分布的几何体即两个拼接的椭圆锥体碰撞盒代替原Event模型中的长方体碰撞盒计算航空器穿越相邻高度层的概率;并利用改进前后碰撞盒的面积大小比值推导改进后航路中航空器的垂直碰撞风险公式,将碰撞风险参数带入改进后的碰撞风险公式进行计算验证。结果表明:改进方法计算的航空器在航路中垂直碰撞风险是原长方体Event模型碰撞风险模型的13%左右,是原椭球体Event模型碰撞风险模型的67%左右,使用该方法进行量化评估是可行的。With the increasingly busy operation of civil aviation airspace,how to build an effective and reasonable mathematical model from the perspective of quantitative analysis to quantify the risk of route flight collision and improve the scientific nature of route planning and management is a problem faced by the industry.A risk assessment method of vertical collision during route flight based on improved Event model is proposed.In this method,the cuboid collision box in the original event model is replaced by two spliced elliptic cone collision boxes which conform to the velocity vector distribution of the aircraft in space to calculate the probability of the aircraft passing through the adjacent altitude layers.The vertical collision risk formula of the aircraft in the improved route is derived by using the area size ratio of the improved front and rear collision boxes.The collision risk parameters obtained by formula are verified.The results show that the vertical collision risk calculated by the improved method is about 13%of the original cuboid event model and 67%of the original ellipsoid event model.It is feasible to use this method for quantitative evaluation.

关 键 词：改进Event模型 平行航路 碰撞风险 拼接椭圆锥体 高度层 

分 类 号：V355.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程] V328