迈向2035年:世界经济格局变化和中国经济展望  

Towards 2035:Changes in the World Economic Situation and China’s Economic Outlook

作　　者：夏杰长[1] 刘诚[1] Xia Jiechang;Liu Cheng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

出　　处：《全球化》2022年第1期58-69,135,共13页Globalization

基　　金：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院应急项目《“两步走”战略背景下服务业现代化的主要目标与实施路径研究》(2021CJY03003)的研究成果。

摘　　要：2021—2035年是全球政治经济格局深刻调整期,是中国建成富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国的第一个阶段,是中国实施“两步走”战略的关键时期。当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,且全球化是大势所趋,牵一发而动全身,世界发展环境变革将对中国经济发展影响深远。本文在深刻剖析世界经济变局的基础上,根据国内外经济发展形势进行合理推论,提出了迈向2035年社会主义现代化强国的进程中,我国经济发展十大趋势,包括跨越中等收入陷阱和跻身发达国家行列、“中国制造”质量显著提升、服务业现代产业体系基本形成、全面实现绿色发展等。2021-2035 is a period of profound adjustment of the global political and economic structure,it is the first stage for China to build a prosperous,democratic,civilized,harmonious and beautiful modern socialist country,and it is a critical period for China to implement the“two-step”strategy.The world is undergoing changes unseen in a century,and globalization is the general trend that affects the whole body,the changes in the world’s development environment will have a profound impact on China’s economic development.Based on a profound analysis of the changes in the world economy,this article makes reasonable inferences based on the economic development situation at domestic and abroad,and puts forward the ten major trends in China’s economic development in the process of moving toward a socialist modernized power in 2035,which including crossing the middle-income trap and entering the ranks of developed countries,the quality of“Made in China”has been significantly improved,the modern industrial system of the service industry has basically been formed,and the full realization of green development.

关 键 词：2035年 世界经济格局 中国经济展望 现代化 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]