基于飞行剖面的航空器试飞活动空管风险研究  

Study on air traffic control risks of aircraft flight test activities based on flight profile

作　　者：韩鹏 王军[3] 王启 赵嶷飞[1,2] HAN Peng;WANG Jun;WANG Qi;ZHAO Yifei(School of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Civil Aviation Key Laboratory of Wide-area Surveillance and Security Control Technology,Tianjin 300300,China;Air Traffic Control Department,Air Traffic Management Bureau,Civil Aviation Administration of China,Beijing 100020,China;Yunnan Branch,Southwest Region Air Traffic Administration of China,Kunming Yunnan 650200,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学民航航班广域监视与安全管控技术重点实验室,天津300300 [3]中国民用航空局空中交通管理局空中交通管制部,北京100020 [4]中国民用航空西南地区空中交通管理局云南分局,云南昆明650200

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第1期149-156,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金资助(52102419);中央高校基本科研业务费项目中国民航大学专项资助(3122018C035)。

摘　　要：为明确空中交通管理风险对航空器适航试飞活动不安全事件的影响,首先,依据航空器试飞科目绘制相应飞行剖面;其次,基于试飞活动飞行剖面,分析管制单位试飞保障流程,提取管制运行风险对试飞活动的影响因素;采用事故树分析法(FTA)分析事故发展过程,将事件和逻辑关系映射至贝叶斯网络(BN),依据国内外民航空管不安全事件分类统计结果和航空器制造商对试飞活动风险评估结论确定条件概率表,并基于变量消元法计算后验概率,推演事故主要诱因。结果表明:航空器试飞活动出现不安全事件或事故征候时,管理因素是导致试飞活动空管保障环节不安全事件的关键致因;试飞任务、空域环境及管制员工作差错也是导致试飞活动不安全事故的较大风险源。In order to analyze impacts of air traffic control risks on aircraft airworthiness flight test accidents,firstly,corresponding flight profile was drawn according to aircraft flight test subjects.Secondly,based on the flight profile of test activities,support process of the control unit was analyzed,and risk factors on test activities were extracted.Then,evolution process of accidents were analyzed by utilizing fault tree analysis(FTA),and events and logical relationship were mapped to BN.Finally,conditional probability tables were determined on the basis of unsafe event classification results of civil aviation and risk assessment conclusion of flight activities by aircraft manufacturers,and posterior probability was calculated based on variable elimination method to derive main causes of accidents.The results show that when unsafe events or potential accidents occur in flight test activities,management factors are the key causes in ATC support progress.Flight test mission,airspace environment and controllers'work error are also the major risk sources.

关 键 词：飞行剖面 航空器适航 试飞活动 风险评估 空中交通管理 贝叶斯网络(BN) 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]