基于不确定性的航空装备体系保障性评估  

Supportability evaluation of aviation equipment system based on uncertainty

作　　者：崔利杰[1] 丛继平 丁刚 任博 王毅[1] 黎纪宏 CUI Lijie;CONG Jiping;DING Gang;REN Bo;WANG Yi;LI Jihong(Equipment Management and UAV Engineering College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710051,China;Graduate college,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710051,China;Science and Technology on Electro-optic Control Laboratory,Luoyang 471000,China;Chinese People's Liberation Army 95825 Unit,Xiaogan 432100,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,西安710051 [2]空军工程大学研究生院,西安710051 [3]光电控制技术重点实验室,洛阳471000 [4]中国人民解放军95825部队,孝感432100

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2021年第12期2452-2461,共10页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72001213);“十三五”装备预研共同技术课题(41402030401)。

摘　　要：针对航空装备体系结构复杂、要素繁多、耦合性强的特点,对其保障流程进行了研究。采用多Agent建模技术开展航空装备体系保障性仿真建模,并进行分析评估;考虑到保障过程中大量存在的主客观不确定性因素,分别采用模糊变量和随机分布2种变量形式予以描述;为符合客观变量动态时变的特点,将基于交叉熵的最大似然估计和哈密顿蒙特卡罗方法相结合,实现基于信息更新的仿真参数描述,优化航空装备体系保障仿真模型。以一个典型战训任务为例,验证了所提方法的可行性和准确性。Aimed at the characteristics of complex structure,various elements,and strong coupling of aviation equipment system,based on the analysis of its support process,the multi-Agent modeling technology is used to carry out the supportability modeling of the aviation equipment system,and analysis and evaluation are performed.Taking into account the large amount of subjective and objective uncertainty factors in the support process,the uncertainty factors are described in the forms of random distribution and fuzzy variables.In order to conform to the characteristics of dynamic time-varying objective variables,the maximum likelihood estimation based on cross-entropy and the Hamilton Monte Carlo method are combined to realize simulation parameter description based on information update and optimize aviation equipment system support simulation model.Finally,a typical combat training task is taken as an example to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method.

关 键 词：航空装备体系 保障 多AGENT模型 不确定性 信息更新 仿真评估 

分 类 号：V37[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]