青岛地铁3号线客流预测后评估方法  

On the Post Evaluation Method of Passenger Flow Forecast of Qingdao Metro Line 3

作　　者：杜东先 李致远 徐启禄 董霓 DU Dongxian;LI Zhiyuan;XU Qilu;DONG Ni(Qingdao Metro Group,Dispatching Department of Operation Branch,Qingdao 266000,China;Southwest Jiaotong University,School of Transportation and Logistics,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛地铁集团,运营分公司调度部,青岛266000 [2]西南交通大学,交通运输与物流学院,成都611756

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第1期122-125,144,共5页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：本文通过研究分析客流预测“四阶段法”分析客流预测后评估理论的优势和可行性,得出了后评估研究的重要基础理论,结合客流预测后评估指标选取的原则,运用指标权重计算和综合评价方法,构建出一套适应性较强的客流预测后评估体系。以青岛地铁3号线为实例剖析,通过挖掘数据中的规律和信息,采用层次分析法计算出各指标权重,综合评价后对客流预测误差原因进行分析。结果表明:青岛地铁3号线客流预测后评价结果良好。同时提出了相应的客流组织措施优化方案,给出不同客流预测情况及应用场景下的客流组织办法,为后续客流预测和城轨线网化发展提供了有利的参考依据。By studying and analyzing the"four stage method"of passenger flow forecasting,this paper analyzes the advantages and feasibility of post evaluation theory of passenger flow forecasting,obtains the important basic theory of post evaluation research,and constructs a set of post evaluation system of passenger flow forecasting with strong adaptability by combining the principle of selecting post evaluation indicators of passenger flow forecasting,using index weight calculation and comprehensive evaluation methods.Taking Qingdao Metro Line 3 as an example,by mining the laws and information in the data,the weight of each index is calculated by analytic hierarchy process,and the causes of passenger flow prediction error are analyzed after comprehensive evaluation.The results show that the post evaluation results of passenger flow prediction of Qingdao Metro Line 3 are good.At the same time,the corresponding optimization scheme of passenger flow organization measures is put forward,and the passenger flow organization methods under different passenger flow forecasts and application scenarios are given,which provides a favorable reference basis for subsequent passenger flow forecast and urban rail network development.

关 键 词：客流预测 后评估 层次分析法 青岛地铁 四阶段法 

分 类 号：U491.11[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]