国家城市规模分布的时空演化特征及影响因素——基于LandScan的全球实证研究  

Spatio-temporal change and influencing factors of city size distribution:Global empirical research based on Land Scan data

作　　者：王妤 孙斌栋 张婷麟[1,2,3] WANG Yu;SUN Bindong;ZHANG Tinglin(Research Center for China Administrative Division,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Institute of Eco-Chongming,Shanghai 202162,China;School of Urban&Regional Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中国行政区划研究中心,上海200241 [2]崇明生态研究院,上海202162 [3]华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2021年第11期1812-1823,共12页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA068);华东师范大学未来科学家和优秀学者培育计划项目(WLKXJ202010)。

摘　　要：洞悉世界各国城市规模分布规律有助于推动形成合理的城镇格局和促进国家经济高质量发展。论文基于2000-2018年LandScan等数据库,按照统一的人口集聚标准创新性地识别了全球各国的城市,分析了国家城市规模分布的时空演化特征、影响因素及其异质性。研究发现:全球各国城市规模分布在研究期间内呈波动均衡的态势。从空间演化来看,非洲、南美洲国家城市规模分布逐渐均衡,而亚洲、欧洲国家出现极化趋势;从现状比较来看,非洲国家城市规模分布的极化程度居于首位,欧洲国家则最为均衡。河流密度、城市人口密度以及工业化水平提高会促进城市规模分布均衡发展,而地形起伏度、国家不稳定程度增加则会强化其极化程度。相比于其他要素,社会经济要素(尤其是城市人口密度)对城市规模分布的影响在不同收入水平、产业结构和政府干预程度的国家间异质性最为明显。研究深化了对城市规模分布及其形成机理的规律性认知,为形成合理的城市规模分布提供了有力的实证支撑。未来中国应通过构建适度均衡的城市规模分布体系、扩大内外双向开放以及应用新一代信息技术,重塑国家经济地理格局。Understanding the patterns of city size distribution around the world is important for the formation of reasonable city size distribution and high-quality national economic development. Based on a panel two-way fixed effects model and multiple databases such as LandScan from 2000 to 2018, this study identified the spatial and temporal change characteristics of city size distribution at the national level and analyzed its influencing factors as well as their heterogeneity based on global cities with a uniform definition. It was found that city size distribution across countries showed a fluctuating equalizing trend. In terms of spatial change, African and South American countries showed gradually equalized city size distribution, while Asian and European countries showed a trend of polarization. In a comparison of the present situation, African countries lead in the polarization of city size distribution, while European countries are the most equalized. Higher river densities, city population densities, and industrialization levels promote a equalized city size distribution, while larger topographic relief and national unrest reinforce their polarization. Compared to other factors, the socioeconomic factors(especially urban population density) have the most significant impact on the heterogeneity of city size distribution across countries with different income levels, industrial structures, and levels of government intervention. Although increased city population density contributes to a more equalized city size distribution overall, it has a significant polarizing effect in service-dominated and weak government intervention countries and a less pronounced effect in high-income countries. The balancing effect of industrial development on city size distribution and the polarizing effect of increased railway density are more significant in low-income countries, manufacturingdominated countries, and countries with weak government intervention. Increased economic development significantly contributes to the polarizati

关 键 词：城市规模分布 高质量发展 影响因素 异质性 全球 

分 类 号：F299.1[经济管理—国民经济]