信贷期限结构对经济增长的影响——基于非线性和异质性的考量  

The effect of credit term structure on economic growth:A nonlinear study with heterogeneous considerations

作　　者：贺俊[1] 丁若麟 毕功兵[1] HE Jun;DING Ruolin;BI Gongbing(School of Management,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2021年第12期3079-3089,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71573240,71731010)。

摘　　要：本文将银行信贷按照期限结构分为短期信贷和中长期信贷,研究了信贷期限结构长期化对经济增长的非线性影响.首先,构建了一个包含企业、家庭和银行部门的内生增长模型,得到了均衡增长路径下,信贷期限结构与经济增长之间的动态关系.通过数理推导,归纳出二者间的关系呈现"先促进、后抑制"的倒U型特征,并从理论上给出了经济实现最大化增长时的最优信贷期限结构.以2007-2017年中国省际面板数据为例,使用面板平滑转换回归模型对理论结果加以实证检验.结果表明,起初,信贷期限结构长期化对经济增长起到促进作用,随着长期化程度加深,其对经济增长的影响会发生由正到负的平滑转换,即当信贷期限结构越过门槛值0.6196后,会抑制经济增长.基于实证模型,针对信贷期限结构与经济增长之间的关系展开弹性分析,得到了不同个体和时间维度下,信贷期限结构变化引起经济增长变化的异质性结果.In this paper,bank credit is divided into short term and long term credit according to the term structure,and the nonlinear impact of long-term credit term structure on economic growth is studied.First,an endogenous growth model including enterprises,households,and banking sectors is constructed.The dynamic relationship between credit term structure and economic growth under the equilibrium growth path is obtained.Through mathematical derivation,it is concluded that the relationship between the two presents an inverted U-shaped characteristic of promoting first,then inhibiting",and the optimal credit term structure is given theoretically when the economy achieves maximum growth.Panel smooth transition regression model is used to empirically test the theoretical results with a provincial panel data set over the 2007-2017 periods in China.Results indicate that the long-term credit term structure promotes the economic growth at first,and with its further development,the influence on the economic growth will be smoothed from positive to negative,that is,when the credit term structure crosses the threshold,0.6196,it will restrain the economic growth.This paper also analyzes the elasticity of the relationship between credit term structure and economic growth based on the empirical model.The heterogeneous results of economic growth change caused by credit term structure change in different individual and temporal dimension can be obtained.

关 键 词：信贷期限结构 经济增长 内生增长 面板平滑转换回归 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]