我国区域空气质量精准管理最优决策方法研究  

Research on the optimal decision method for precise management of regional air quality in China

作　　者：唐湘博 陈晓红 TANG Xiangbo;CHEN Xiaohong(School of Frontier Crossover Studies,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China;The Collaborative Innovation Center for Resource-conserving&Environment-friendly Society and Ecological Civilization,School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工商大学前沿交叉学院,长沙410205 [2]中南大学商学院两型社会与生态文明协同创新中心,长沙410083

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2021年第12期3199-3211,共13页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(72088101);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72174060);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目(91846301);湖南省自然科学基金青年项目(2020JJ5103)。

摘　　要：我国"十三五"生态环境保护规划明确"以提高环境质量为核心,实施大气环境质量目标管理和限期达标规划",且将环境质量达标规划上升到立法高度.本文以区域空气质量精准管理为目标,聚焦空气质量达标最优决策方法研究,系统研究了空气质量达标管理体系、模式与方法.基于Stackelberg博弈理论构建了主从递阶两层优化模型,研究表明,优化决策结果不仅能展示区域最优控制方案下各地区-各部门(行业)-各污染物的削减量、最小减排成本,而且能明晰、细化各地区-各部门(行业)-各污染物控制技术组合措施,可较好地指导区域空气质量达标管理政策的制定与实施.本文的研究结论能够为我国空气质量改善战略的制定提供技术支撑,并为城市或区域空气质量的达标管理提供现实指导,有助于全面实现"经济发展-环境质量-能源替代-污染治理-控制成本"五位协同的大气污染防治综合科学决策.最后结合区域空气质量管理的要求,在制定达标管理细则、强化区域顶层设计、促进数据共享、结合产业实际,以及短期、中长期达标规划相结合等方面总结了政策启示,为提高我国区域空气质量精细化管理水平提供切实可行的方法与路径.China’s"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"for ecological environmental protection clearly states that"focus on improving environmental quality,implement the target management of atmospheric environmental quality and planning of reaching quality standard within a definite time",and emphasizes environmental quality compliance planning by laws.This paper aims at the precise management of regional air quality,focusing on the research of optimal decision methods for air quality compliance management,and systematically studies the system,models and methods of air quality compliance management.A two-layer hierarchical optimization model based on stackelberg game theory is constructed.The research shows that the results of the optimization decision-making can not only come to the exact reduction amount of each area,each sector(industry),each pollutant under the regional optimal control scheme and the minimum emission reduction cost,but also clearly and precisely present the combination of pollution control technological measures of emission reduction for each area,each sector(industry)and each pollutant.This method can better guide the formulation and implementation of regional air quality standards management policies.The conclusions in this paper can provide technical support for the development of China’s air quality improvement strategies,and provide practical guidance for municipal and regional air quality compliance management.This would help to achieve the comprehensive realization of scientific decision-making of air pollution control based on synergism of five elements including"economic development,environment quality,energy substitution,pollution control,cost saving".Finally,this study presents policy implications of development of detailed management initiatives align with regional air quality management requirements,such as strengthening regional top-level design,promoting data sharing,integrating industrial reality,combining short-term and long-term compliance planning.These implications will provide practical

关 键 词：空气质量 精准管理 STACKELBERG博弈 最优决策方法 

分 类 号：X323[环境科学与工程—环境工程]