基于后悔理论的港口存货融资质押率与物流服务努力水平联合决策  

Joint decision-making of loan-to-value ratios and logistics service effort level of port’s inventory financing based on the regret theory

作　　者：刁姝杰 匡海波 孟斌 汤霞[2] DIAO Shujie;KUANG Haibo;MENG Bin;TANG Xia(Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhuhai City Polytechnic,Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学综合交通运输协同创新中心,大连116026 [2]珠海城市职业技术学院经济管理学院,珠海519000

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2021年第12期3304-3320,共17页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划专项(2019YFB1600400);国家自然科学基金(71831002);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJCZH107);辽宁省“兴辽英才计划”(XLYC2008030)。

摘　　要：统一授信的港存货物质押模式中,港口面临质押率与物流服务努力水平的双重决策难题,由于存在诸多不确定因素,难以做到完全理性,决策结果往往无法达到最优.本文基于有限理性假设,引入后悔理论并考虑后悔心理随质押期呈现的不同变化趋势,探讨港口质押率与物流服务努力水平联合决策.本文以最大收益为心理参照点测算港口决策的效用值,通过解析后悔心理随时间表现出的恒定、递增、递减三种特征,弥补完全理性与单一心理状态在诠释决策偏差时的局限性.进一步,考虑努力水平对质押物完好程度的影响、企业资信水平等因素,构建以期望效用最大化为目标的港口联合决策模型,求解最优质押率与物流服务努力水平.研究结果表明:港口最优质押率与最优物流服务努力水平正相关,物流服务策略对贷款业务有辅助作用.一定条件下,后悔系数和企业违约概率分别与质押率、港口物流努力水平呈现负相关.质押期对质押率的影响表现为先上升后下降,与物流努力水平则为正相关.港口应利用物流职能对贷款业务的辅助配合作用,发挥物流服务的信息获取优势,完善对企业的信用评级与分级监管,制定灵活的风险预警与应对策略.The unified credit mode of port’s inventory financing transfers port into both funds provider and logistics services supplier,which causes dual decision-making problem of the loan-to-value ratios and logistics service level.It is difficult for port to remain completely rational because of various uncertainties during the process,thus the decision-making results often deviate from the optimal.Based on the bounded rationality hypothesis,this paper introduces the regret theory and three kinds of changing tendency of regret degree to address the joint decision-making problem of loan-to-value ratios and logistics service level in port inventory financing.This paper first elaborates three changing trends of regret degrees of port(constant,increasing and decreasing)and sets the maximal profit as psychological reference point,which make up for the limitation of complete rationality and single psychological state hypothesis in interpreting the deviation of decision-making.Then,a joint decision-making model of port expected utility with the decision objective of maximizing is constructed to calculate the optimal loan-to-value ratio and logistics effort level on the basis of the relationship between logistics service and the inventory status and factors like credit level of financing enterprise.The results show that there is a positive correlation between the optimal loan-to-value ratio and logistics service effort level which indicates a complementary effect between the financial and logistics strategies by port.There is a negative correlation between the regret coefficient and the loan-to-value ratio as well as logistics effort level under certain conditions.The default probability of enterprises is negatively correlated with the loan-to-value ratios and logistics service effort level.The influence of the pledge term on the loan-to-value ratio is first rising and then falling.The pledge term is positively correlated with the level of logistics effort.The port should utilize the supplementary effect of logistics on finan

关 键 词：港口存货质押 后悔理论 质押率 物流服务努力水平 联合决策 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济]