四川地区ECWMF模式晴雨预报订正试验研究  

Experimental study on revision of ECWMF clear-rainy forecast in Sichuan region

作　　者：范江琳 陈朝平[1,2] 曹萍萍 冯良敏[1,2] 王佳津 刘博 FAN Jianglin;CHEN Chaoping;CAO Pingping;FENG Liangmin;WANG Jiajin;LIU Bo(Sichuan Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072;Sichuan Meteorological Administration,Chengdu 610072;Unit 78092 of the PLA,Chengdu 610036)

机构地区：[1]四川省气象台,成都610072 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [3]中国人民解放军78092部队,成都610036

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2022年第1期58-65,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：智能网格降水预报客观订正技术研究项目(SCQXKJQN2020021);基于实时误差分析的多要素订正技术研究项目(省重实验室2018-重点-06);2021年中国气象局创新发展专项GRAPES模式系统业务运行与改进(CXFZ2021Z01)。

摘　　要：利用2016-2019年ECWMF模式降水预报及对应时段的观测资料,设计了最优百分位(OP)、最优TS评分(OTS)、概率匹配(PM)、分区OTS和分区PM-OTS融合共5种方案,对数值模式晴雨预报展开了订正试验。结果表明:(1) OP和PM方案的晴雨订正阈值为静态阈值,OTS方案为动态阈值。5种方案的阈值均适用于A区(盆地、阿坝州和甘孜州北部),其中PM、分区PM-OTS融合方案阈值更适用于数值模式湿偏差明显的B区(甘孜州南部和攀西地区)。(2)各方案对ECWMF模式晴雨预报均有明显的订正能力,24 h时效订正效果最优,B区订正效果优于A区,秋冬季节优于春夏季节。(3)分区后的订正方案晴雨评分优于分区前,其中分区PM-OTS融合方案评分最优。个例和批量试验表明,A区各方案订正效果相当,B区以PM、分区OTS和分区PM-OTS融合3种方案订正后的雨区分布与实况更接近,其中分区PM-OTS融合方案订正效果最优。Base on the precipitation forecast of ECWMF model from 2016 to 2019 and the observation data, five schemes are designed to carry out revision experiment on numerical model clear-rainy forecast, including Optimal Percentile(OP), the Optimal Threat Score(OTS), the Probability Matching(PM), the sub-district OTS and the sub-district PM-OTS fusion scheme. The results show that:(1) The clear-rainy revised thresholds of OP and PM are static, and that of OTS is dynamic. The thresholds of the 5 schemes are all applicable to Area A(basin,northern Aba Prefecture and northern Garze Prefecture), among which the thresholds of PM and sub-district PM-OTS are more applicable to Area B(southern Ganzi Prefecture and panxi area) with obvious wet deviation of the numerical model.(2) Each scheme has obvious revised ability for ECWMF model clear-rainy forecast. The revised effect of 24 h is the best, and that of Area B is superior to Area B, autumn and winter is better than spring and summer.(3) Revised scheme scores after subdivision are better than before, and the sub-district PM-OTS is the best. Individual cases and batch tests show that the revised effects of the schemes in Area A are comparable, the rainfall distribution in Area B are more close to the observed precipitation after revised of PM, sub-district OTS and PM-OTS fusion schemes, among which the sub-district PM-OTS is the best.

关 键 词：ECWMF模式 晴雨预报 订正阈值 四川地区 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]