土地价格对城市综合杠杆率的影响及近邻空间溢出效应研究  

The Impact of Land Price on Urban Comprehensive Leverage Ratio and the Spillover Effect of Neighboring Space

作　　者：曾国安[1,2] 苏诗琴 ZENG Guo-an;SU Shi-qin(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Academy of Development,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学发展研究院,武汉430072

出　　处：《经济问题》2022年第1期9-19,共11页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国共产党解决农村绝对贫困问题的路径、经验与启示研究”(20&ZD018)。

摘　　要：去杠杆、防风险是近年我国宏观经济调控的重要任务。城市综合杠杆率的上升是我国宏观杠杆率上升的重要原因,而土地价格的上涨是城市综合杠杆率上升的重要推动因素。基于全国105个地级及地级以上城市2009—2018年数据所做的实证分析发现,土地价格确实推动了城市综合杠杆率的上升,特别是住宅用地和商业用地价格的上涨显著地推动了城市综合杠杆率的上升,大城市及低经济增速城市土地价格的上涨更显著地推动了城市综合杠杆率的上升。分析还发现土地价格上涨推升城市综合杠杆率的作用还有显著的正向空间溢出效应,这也说明主要城市地价高企推升城市综合杠杆率的作用最终会传递到其他城市,从而推升全国宏观杠杆率。要使城市综合杠杆率及其变化处于合理水平就需要构建平抑土地价格过度上涨的长效机制,弱化地方财政对土地出让收入的依赖性,完善土地出让方式和土地出让价格分类调控机制,重点防控高杠杆率城市的债务增长,要以经济高质量发展为目标,以产业结构升级为抓手,努力实现债务增长与经济增长的协调。Deleveraging and risk prevention are important tasks of Chinese macroeconomic regulation in recent years.The rise of urban comprehensive leverage ratio plays an important role in the rise of Chinese macro leverage ratio,and one of the important driving factors for the rise of urban comprehensive leverage ratio is the rise in land prices.Based on the dataset of 105 prefecture-level and above cities over the period of 2009-2018,we find that land prices have indeed promoted the rise of urban comprehensive leverage ratio,especially the residential and commercial land prices.Besides,land prices have more significantly promoted the rise of comprehensive leverage ratio in large cities and cities with low economic growth rates.We also find that rising land prices have a significant positive spatial spillover effect in pushing up the comprehensive leverage ratio of cities,which shows that the effects of high land prices in major cities on the comprehensive leverage will eventually be passed on to other cities,thereby pushing up the national macro leverage.To keep urban comprehensive leverage ratio and its changes at a reasonable level,it is necessary to build a long-term mechanism to curb excessive increases in land prices,weaken the dependence of local finance on land transfer income,improve land transfer methods and land price classification and control mechanisms and focus on preventing and controlling the debt growth in cities with high leverage.We must take the high-quality economic development as the goal and the upgrading of the industrial structure as the starting point,and strive to achieve the coordination of debt growth and economic growth.

关 键 词：城市综合杠杆率 土地价格上涨 杠杆率高企 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] F812.7