“女大三”可以“抱金砖”吗?——基于AIPW模型的反事实检验  

Can a Mature Wife Ensure a Rich Life?Counterfactual Test Based on AIPW Model

作　　者：雷欣[1] 白雨东 李博峰 Lei Xin;Bai Yudong;Li Bofeng(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University;School of Public Policy&Management,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430072 [2]清华大学公共管理学院,100084

出　　处：《经济评论》2022年第1期127-142,共16页Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金规划项目“基于长期机会平等导向的中国收入再分配制度优化设计研究”(项目编号:17YJA790039)的资助。

摘　　要：本文通过检验不同婚姻年龄匹配模式对夫妻个体收入的影响,以期回答“女大三,抱金砖”的传统观念在当前中国是否成立,,基于CGSS微观数据,采用AIPW模型识别了“女大1-2岁”“女大3-5岁”和“女大5岁以上”婚姻年龄匹配模式对“60后”“70后”和“80后”三个群体的男性和女性收入的异质影响效应结果显示,“姐弟恋”婚姻对男性收入存在显著的“抱金砖”效应,但对女性收入具有显著的“惩罚”效应。上述效应在“80后”年轻人群体中尤为明显,随样本个体年龄的增长而逐渐减弱;而且,妻子年龄比丈夫越大的婚配模式对男性带来的“抱金砖”效应以及对女性带来的“收入惩罚”效应越明显本文从工作时间、健康、幸福感和社交应酬四个维度,考察了“姐弟恋”婚姻产生收入影响效应的内在机制。本文认为,社会应认可“女大男小”的婚姻模式,并帮助此类婚姻中负担较重的女性平衡家庭和工作的矛盾,由此提升女性的收入水平,增进“姐弟恋”家庭的幸福与和谐。This article examines the impact of different marriage age matching models on the income of individual couples, in order to answer whether the traditional concept of “a mature wife ensure you a rich life.” holds true in China.Based on the CGSS micro data, this paper uses the AIPW model to identify the marriage age matching patterns of “females 1-2 years older”, “females 3-5 years older” and “females over 5 years older”,and further explores the heterogeneous effect of this model on the income of men and women in the three groups of “post-60 s”, “post-70 s” and “post-80 s”.The results show that “cradle snatcher” marriage has a significant “brick-holding” effect on men’s income, but has a significant “punishment” effect on women’s income.The effects mentioned above are particularly obvious in the “post-80 s” youth group, and gradually weaken with the increase of the sample individual’s age.Moreover, the effect of “brick-holding” on man and the effect of the “income penalty” effect on woman will both be more apparent when wife is much older than her husband.This article examines the internal mechanism of the income effect of “cradle snatcher” marriage from the four dimensions of working hours, health, happiness and social entertainment.This article believes that the society should recognize Cradle Snatcher marriage, and help women with heavier burdens in such marriages to balance the contradictions between family and work, thereby increasing women’s income and enhancing the happiness and harmony of such families.

关 键 词：婚姻年龄匹配 姐弟恋 女大男小婚姻 AIPW模型 收入水平 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]