长江水资源开发利用的径流累积影响研究:以大通断面为例  

Study on the cumulative impacts of water resources utilization on the runoff of the Yangtze River: taking datong station as an example

作　　者：雷静 汪伟 傅巧萍 LEI Jing;WANG Wei;FU Qiaoping(Hubei Key Laboratory of Basin Water Security,Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司流域水安全保障湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2021年第12期25-34,共10页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“区域水平衡与国家水网优化布局研究”(2021YFC3200202)。

摘　　要：针对长江流域水资源开发利用的径流累积影响效应问题,同时为了定量预测长江流域未来径流演变特征,以大通水文站为代表站,建立了长江流域控制性水库群和跨流域调水工程联合配置调度模型,对2035年大通断面径流过程进行了模拟预测,分析预测了长江流域水资源开发利用的径流累积影响。结果表明,到2035年,随着南水北调等跨流域引调水工程、长江上游梯级水库群的逐步建设以及流域内新增耗水的影响,大通断面年均径流量相比天然将减小了679亿m^(3),总体上表现出枯季流量增加、汛期流量减少的趋势。同时,以三峡为核心的长江上游梯级水库群通过蓄丰补枯的调度,显著改善了枯季以及特枯年份大通断面的来水条件,大通旬均流量小于10 000 m^(3)/s的旬个数相比天然减少了82个,减小时段主要在咸潮易发的1—4月,为应对咸潮入侵、保障长江口供水安全创造了工程条件。Focus on the cumulative impacts of water resources utilization on the runoff of the Yangtze River, and projection of evolution characteristics of future runoff in the Yangtze River Basin, through establishing a joint deployment and dispatch model of the reservoir regulation and inter-basin water diversion of Yangtze River, the runoff process at Datong Station in 2035 was simulated and predicted, and the cumulative impacts of runoff on development and utilization of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin were analyzed. The results showed that the annual average runoff at Datong Station should be reduced by 67.9 billion m^(3) in 2035 with the cross-basin water diversion project such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and cascade reservoirs on the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and the impact of new water consumption within the basin, which shows the trend of increasing flow in dry season and decreasing flow in flood season compared with the current situation on the whole. At the same time, the cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, with the Three Gorges Reservoir as the core, have significantly improved the water supply conditions of the Datong Station in dry seasons and extra dry years through the regulation of peak shaving and valley filling. The number of ten-day periods with streamflow lower than 10 000 m^(3)/s at Datong Station, has been reduced by 82 from current situation(mainly during salty tide prone season January to April). Engineering methods were provided to prevent the intrusion of salt tides and ensure the safety of water supply in the Yangtze River Estuary.

关 键 词：长江 累积影响 水库调度 跨流域引调水 径流 人类活动 长江口 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]