高维不确定性条件下飞行器级间分离可靠性评估  

Reliability Assessment of Flight Vehicle Stage Separation Considering High-Dimensional Uncertainties

作　　者：聂兆伟 王浩[2] 秦梦[2] 张海瑞 NIE Zhao-wei;WANG Hao;QIN Meng;ZHANG Hai-rui(School of Mechanical Engineering Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China;China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing 100076,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学机械学院,南京210094 [2]中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京100076

出　　处：《宇航学报》2021年第12期1525-1531,共7页Journal of Astronautics

基　　金：国家某项目技术基础课题(JSZL2020203B001)。

摘　　要：针对高维不确定性条件下飞行器级间分离精细化分析需求,建立参数化级间分离动力学仿真模型,综合考虑级间分离过程中高维不确定性因素影响,识别典型分离失效模式,构建分离可靠性模型。提出采用活跃子空间方法实现高维不确定性参数的空间降维,结合极大极小距离序贯采样方法,利用含交叉项的高阶多项式回归模型对降维空间进行近似,完成了可靠性分析。结果表明,提出的方法能够准确描述高维不确定性因素对分离可靠性的影响特征,在保证高维不确定性计算精度条件下,大幅提升分离可靠性定量分析效率,此外,不同阈值对应分离可靠性曲线与常规打靶仿真结果吻合良好,为高维不确定性条件下分离方案精细化设计提供支撑。Considering the influence of various uncertainties, the parametric kinetic model of stage separation is constructed to deal with the problem of refined analysis under the condition of high-dimensional uncertainties. The typical separation failure modes are identified and the reliability assessment model of vehicle separation mission is constructed. The active subspace method is employed to realize the dimensionality reduction of high-dimensional uncertainty parameter space to deal with the problem. Combined with the maximum-minimum distance sequential sampling method, the high-order polynomial regression model with cross terms is used to achieve the reliability analysis in the dimensionality reduction space. It is shown that the influence of high-dimensional uncertainty on separation reliability can be described exactly. Higher efficiency of reliability analysis is achieved under the condition of ensuring high-dimensional uncertainties calculation accuracy. The separation reliability curves corresponding to different thresholds are consistent with the results of Monte Carlo method, which can further support the detailed design of the vehicle separation considering high-dimensional uncertainties.

关 键 词：运载火箭 级间分离 高维不确定性 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：V475.3[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]