基于PSR-PCA-ANFIS模型的保定市中心城区水资源安全评价  

Evaluation of Water Resources Security in Baoding Central City Based on PSR-PCA-ANFIS Model

作　　者：张彦 李明然 寇利卿 ZHANG Yan;LI Ming-ran;KOU Li-qing(Hydrology Survey and Research Center,Baoding 071000,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省保定水文勘测研究中心,河北保定071000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第2期68-75,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：保定市科技计划项目(2011ZG006)。

摘　　要：为科学、客观地评价保定市中心城区水资源安全状况,在充分分析保定市中心城区水资源特点的实际情况的基础上,尝试构建基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型概念并结合相关性分析和主成分分析的方法的水资源安全评价指标体系,同时建立了基于自适应模糊神经推理系统(ANFIS)的水资源安全评价模型,对保定市中心城区2009-2018年的水资源安全状况进行评价,结果表明:2009-2018年保定市中心城区水资源安全状况无明显变化趋势,除主城区处于较安全状态外,其他区的水资源安全状况主要处于临界安全状态,形势不容乐观;水资源的状态安全是影响保定市中心城区水资源安全的最主要因素。In order to scientifically and objectively evaluate the water resources security situation and on the basis of fully analyzing the actual situation of water resources characteristics in the center of Baoding City,an evaluation index system of water resources security based on the concept of pressure-state-response(PSR)model combined with the methods of correlation analysis and principal component analysis is intended to build.At the same time,an evaluation model of water resources security is established based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system(ANFIS).The water resources security situation of Baoding City from 2009 to 2018 is evaluated.The results show that the water resources security situation of Baoding City had no obvious change trend from 2009 to 2018.Except for the main urban area,the water resources security in other areas is mainly in the critical state,and the situation is not optimistic.The state security of water resources is the most important factor affecting the water resources security in the center of Baoding City.

关 键 词：水资源安全 PSR模型 主成分分析 减法聚类 ANFIS 

分 类 号：X820.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程]