武汉市水资源旱涝变化及其急转情况历史演变分析研究  

Research on the Historical Evolution of Drought-flood Historical Change and its Alternation in Wuhan

作　　者：侯雨坤 耿川 HOU Yu-kun;GENG Chuan(Second Harbor Consultants Co.,Ltd.,China Communications Construction Company,Wuhan 430071,China)

机构地区：[1]中交第二航务工程勘察设计院有限公司,武汉430071

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第2期110-116,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

摘　　要：本研究通过历史实测气象数据,结合水文统计方法、逐日干旱计算方法以及游程理论,对武汉市干旱洪涝事件进行提取,并重点分析武汉市历史气候演变以及旱涝急转变化情况。结果表明武汉市历史降水呈现整体上升、蒸发呈现下降趋势,枯水期存在蒸发大于降水的情况,湖泊水位在枯水期具有下降可能。且夏季的旱涝急转以及秋冬季节的涝旱急转均存在导致湖泊水位变幅的风险。本研究在为武汉市河湖水体提供降水蒸发变化依据、提出丰枯交替期水位控制预案的同时,也为武汉市乃至长江流域预防旱涝及其急转的整体预案提供相应技术依据。This study combines hydrological statistical method,daily drought calculation method and its theory to quantify the drought and flooding events through historical observed meteorological data.These events are used to analyze the historical climate evolution and drought and flood in Wuhan.The results show that the historical rainfall in Wuhan increases and evaporation decreases.The evaporation is greater than rainfall in the dry season,which indicates that the water level of the lake might decrease in the dry season.In addition,the abrupt change of drought/flood in summer and the abrupt change of flood/drought in autumn and winter may lead to the risk of lake water level fluctuation.This paper provides not only a reference for the changes of rainfall evaporation and the water level control plan for the lakes in Wuhan,but also provides the corresponding technical basis for the overall prevention plan of extreme drought and flood and its abrupt change in Wuhan and even the Yangtze River Basin.

关 键 词：降水 蒸发 SWAP 游程理论 旱涝急转 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]