国际法治评估的有效性与准确性检验  

Validity and Accuracy Test of World Rule of Law Assessment

作　　者：曾赟 Zeng Yun

机构地区：[1]广州大学法学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《湖湘法学评论》2021年第2期15-28,共14页HUXIANG LAW REVIEW

摘　　要：随着1996年世界银行首份全球治理指数报告的发布,法治评估开始进入法学研究的视域。在法治评估实践初期,其主要依附于其他学科而存在。2008年,世界正义工程发布首份法治指数测量报告,国际法治评估遂脱离依附于全球治理指数的窠臼,展现出一种独立的发展形态。无论是一种依附型的法治评估,还是一种独立型的法治评估,其评估结论均深刻影响着世界各国和地区的法治实践。那么国际法治评估的有效性和准确性究竟如何呢?为科学回答前述问题,首先,抽取2015、2017-2018共2个年度的世界正义工程法治评估数据作为样本数据(n=216),采用验证性因素分析法、探索性因素分析法对世界正义工程法治指数的有效性进行检验。经检验,世界正义工程法治评估的有效性低。其次,采用主成分分析方法,对世界正义工程法治评估44个二级指标的权重进行计算,在此基础上对世界正义工程2012-2019年共6个年度640个被评估对象的法治得分进行重新计算。经采平均绝对误差法检验,世界正义工程法治评估的准确性低。最后,采用相同方法,对2010-2015年世界银行全球治理指数50个国家和地区共6个年度的法治得分进行重新计算。经采平均绝对误差法检验,世界银行全球治理指数法治评估的准确性低。With the release of the first Worldwide Governance Indicators of the World Bank in 1996,the evaluation of the rule of law began to enter the perspective of legal research.In the early stage of the practice of rule of law assessment,it mainly depended on other disciplines.In 2008,the World Justice Project released the first measurement report of the rule of law indicators,and the world rule of law assessment began to break away from the pattern of relying on the worldwide governance indicators and showed an independent development form.Regardless of whether it is a dependent assessment of the rule of law or an independent assessment of the rule of law,the conclusions have a profound impact on the practice of the rule of law in the countries and regions all over the world.What about the effectiveness and accuracy of the world rule of law assessment?To answer this question scientifically,first,this paper takes the assessment data of the world justice project rule of law in 2015 and 2017-2018 as the sample data(n=216).The validation factor analysis and exploratory factor analysis show that the effectiveness of the rule of law assessment of the world justice project is low.Second,the principal component analysis method is used to calculate the weight of 44 secondary indicators of rule of law assessment of the world justice project.Then the rule of law scores of 640 assessed objects from the 2012 to 2019 in 6 years were recalculated.Through the mean absolute error method,it is proved that the accuracy of the rule of law assessment of the world justice project is low.Third,using the same methods,it is proved that the rule of law scores of 50 countries and regions in the World Bank global governance indicators from 2010 to 2015 were recalculated.By using the mean absolute error method,it is showed that the accuracy of the rule of law assessment of the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators is also low.

关 键 词：法治评估 法治指数 主成分分析 实验研究 

分 类 号：D99[政治法律—国际法学]