基于故障树和贝叶斯网络的危化品罐式运输车道路运输系统的可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of road transportation system of hazardous chemicals tank truck based on fault tree and Bayesian network

作　　者：曹闰烽 刘瑞贤[2] 刘婧[2] CAO Run-feng;LIU Rui-xian;LIU Jing(Glorious Sun School of Business and Management,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051,China;School of Economics and Management,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200051 [2]中北大学经济与管理学院,山西太原030051

出　　处：《山东大学学报（理学版）》2022年第1期20-29,共10页Journal of Shandong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：2018年陕西省软科学研究资助项目(2018041057-3);2019年陕西省艺术科学规划课题(2019A62);山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目“山西省军民融合协同创新机制、路径及政策研究”(201801027);山西省社科联重点课题“山西省绿色物流产业高质量发展对策研究”(SSKLZDKT2020086);山西省区域生态文明-科技创新-经济增长协同发展研究(2020SY389)。

摘　　要：为保障危化品罐式运输车道路运输系统的可靠性,提出一种基于故障树分析法和贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性研究方法。首先,根据道路运输系统故障树模型向贝叶斯网络转化的方法确定贝叶斯网络模型和条件概率表;其次,结合贝叶斯网络双向推理算法对危化品道路运输系统进行推理计算;最后,分析得出危化品罐式运输车道路运输系统的可靠度。研究发现:该方法可以根据根节点故障的先验概率正向推理系统失效的可能性,并且可以通过根节点的概率重要度分析结果排查故障,同时可以通过反向推理计算根节点的后验概率诊断故障。在结论中,提出了针对系统中关键风险事件的应对策略。In order to ensure the reliability of the road transportation system of hazardous chemicals tank truck,a system reliability research method based on fault tree analysis and Bayesian network is proposed.Firstly,the Bayesian network model and conditional probability table according to the method of converting the fault tree model of the road transportation system to the Bayesian network was determined.Secondly,the Bayesian network two-way reasoning algorithm to perform inference calculations on the road transportation system of hazardous chemicals was combined.Finally,the reliability of the road transportation system of hazardous chemical tank trucks was analyzed.The research found that this method can forward infer the possibility of system failure based on the prior probability of root node failure,and can troubleshoot the failure through the results of the probability importance analysis of the root node,and calculate the posterior probability of the root node through reverse reasoning diagnose the fault.In the conclusion,the countermeasures against key risk events in the system are proposed.

关 键 词：故障树分析法 贝叶斯网络 运输 概率重要度 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：U492.336.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]