基于心理账户前景值的交通安全管理群体行为演化分析  

Analysis of Behavior Evolution of Traffic Safety Management Group Based on the Prospect Value of Mental Account

作　　者：杨晓芳[1] 薄波 YANG Xiaofang;BO Bo(School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《物流科技》2022年第2期73-76,90,共5页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51308409);上海浦江人才计划资助项目(15PJC075)。

摘　　要：文章对交通安全管理工作中的交通监督部门和交通安全管理人员的行为决策进行演化分析。引入心理账户前景值,建立交通监督部门与交通安全管理人员之间的演化博弈模型,分析双方的行为演化过程以及稳定性条件,并运用Matlab进行仿真。研究结果表明:在满足S>0,P>0的条件下交通监督部门和交通安全管理人员的决策达到最佳的理想状态,即严格监督,严格管理。通过提高严格监督和管理意识,提升行为决策概率初始值,降低收益价值感知参考点,提高支付价值参考点,以及增加监督举报概率的措施,可以对交通监督部门和交通安全管理人员的行为决策选择向严格监督和严格管理演化,都有着不同程度的促进作用。This paper analyzes the evolution of the behavioral decisions of traffic supervision departments and traffic safety managers in traffic safety management.Introduce the prospect value of the mental account,establish an evolutionary game model between the traffic supervision department and the traffic safety management personnel,analyze the behavior evolution process and stability conditions of both parties,and use matlab to simulate.The research results show that the decision-making of the traffic supervision department and traffic safety management personnel reaches the best ideal state under the conditions of S>0 and P>0,that is,strict supervision and strict management.By improving strict supervision and management awareness,increasing the initial value of behavioral decision-making probability,lowering the reference point of profit value perception,increasing the reference point of payment value,and increasing the probability of supervision and reporting,the behavioral decision-making choices of traffic supervision departments and traffic safety managers can be selected.The evolution to strict supervision and strict management all have different degrees of promotion.

关 键 词：前景理论 心理账户 交通安全管理 演化博弈理论 

分 类 号：F570[经济管理—产业经济]