人口总数估计:基于三系统估计量与比率估计量的组合方法  

Estimation of Total Population:A Combined Method Based on Triple System Estimator and Ratio Estimator

作　　者：孟杰 杨贵军 冯国雷 滑梦珂 MENG Jie;YANG Guijun;FENG Guolei;HUA Mengke(School of Statistics,Tianjin University of Finance and Economic,Tianjin 300222)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学统计学院,天津300222

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2022年第1期35-49,共15页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(20ATJ008);国家社科基金青年项目(17CTJ002);天津市度哲学社会科学规划重点课题(TJTJ19-001);内蒙古纪检监察大数据实验室2020-2021年度开放课题(IMDBD202002)。

摘　　要：受多种因素影响,人口普查结果不可避免地偏离真实人口总数,如何构造一个统计性质优良,适用范围广的人口总数估计量,精准把握人口变动趋势是政府统计工作的重要议题.本文解读了英国统计局普查年人口总数估计的经验方法,据此提出三系统估计量与比率估计量组合的人口总数估计方法.模拟研究结果表明,在人口总体合理分层的基础上,新方法能较好地克服由于两系统不独立而引起的交互作用偏差问题,提高人口总数估计量的精度.同时,文章的研究也提出了"第三套人口统计数据资源"的建设思路,这既是构建和应用三系统估计量的数据基础,也有助于进一步推进统计现代化改革.Due to the influence of various factors,the census results inevitably deviate from the real total population.How to construct an estimation of the total population with good statistical properties and wide application scope and to accurately grasp the trend of population change is an important issue for the government’s statistical work.In this paper,we explore the empirical method of the census annual population estimation of the UK Statistics Office,and propose a method of population estimation based on the combination of triple system estimation and ratio estimation.The simulation results show that the new method can better overcome the interaction bias caused by the independence of two systems,and improve the accuracy of the total population estimation based on the reasonable stratification of the population.At the same time,the research of this paper also puts forward the construction idea of "the third set of demographic data resources",which is not only the data foundation of constructing and applying triple system estimation,but also helpful to further promote the statistical modernization reform.

关 键 词：人口总数估计 三系统估计量 比率估计量 捕获-再捕获-再捕获模型 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]