新冠肺炎疫情对全球贸易的影响研究  

A Study on the Impact of COVID-19 on Global Trade

作　　者：刘洪铎[1] 张铌 卢阳 陈晓珊 Liu Hongduo;Zhang Ni;Lu Yang;Chen Xiaoshan

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院 [2]江西财经大学经济学院 [3]广东财经大学会计学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2021年第12期61-76,共16页Statistical Research

基　　金：全国统计科学研究重点项目“重大突发公共卫生事件对中国参与全球价值链分工的冲击影响研究”(2020LZ21);国家民委民族研究项目“‘一带一路’视域下民族文化创意产业贸易的高质量发展路径研究”(2020-GMD-073);广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划青年项目“逆全球化背景下外部政策不确定性对广东参与全球价值链分工的影响及对策研究”(GD18YYJ04);广东省普通高校特色创新类项目“‘逆全球化’对中国企业参与全球价值链分工的冲击影响及应对策略研究”(2019WTSCX025)。

摘　　要：在新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行的背景下,如何纾解疫情不利冲击以推动国际贸易步入复苏的快车道,已成为当前国际社会亟需共同应对的重大议题。本文基于跨国月度面板数据,实证考察了新冠肺炎疫情对全球贸易的冲击影响及作用机制,并在一般均衡条件下探析其贸易福利效应。研究发现,新冠肺炎疫情对跨国进、出口贸易活动均具有显著的抑制作用,基于进、出口方双边层面的关税等价转换结果来看,疫情所引致的进、出口贸易遏制效应分别相当于加征0.175%~5.913%、0.186%~6.275%幅度的关税;作用机制检验表明,新冠肺炎疫情主要通过加剧供需端冲击、引发贸易壁垒、催生不确定性风险等渠道对全球贸易造成负面影响;基于一般均衡贸易影响(General Equilibrium Trade Impact,简称"GETI")框架的反事实分析显示,消除新冠肺炎疫情在跨国范围内能够带来0.3%~3.48%不等的贸易福利改善效应,中等收入经济体从中获得的贸易收益略大于高收入经济体。本文有助于丰富和拓展流行病学、国际经济学等交叉领域的研究内涵,同时对于后疫情时代的全球经济、卫生治理亦具有重要的现实启示意义。In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic,how to mitigate the adverse impact of the epidemic and push international trade into the fast lane of recovery has become a major issue that needs to be addressed by the international community.This article empirically investigates the impact and mechanism of the COVID-19 on global trade based on monthly panel data at the cross-country level and then assesses its trade welfare effects in the general equilibrium condition.Our findings can be summarized as follows:(1)The COVID-19 has a significant inhibitory effect on import and export trade.Combined with the bilateral level of import and export parties,the estimated ad-valorem tax equivalents of the COVID-19 range from 0.175%~5.913%and 0.186%~6.275%for import and export,respectively.(2)The mechanism test shows that the COVID-19 has a restraining effect on global trade mainly through channels such as intensifying supply and demand shocks,triggering trade barriers,and spawning uncertain risks.(3)The counterfactual analysis based on the GETI framework shows that the elimination of the COVID-19 could bring about 0.3%~3.48%improvement in trade welfare transnationally,in which middle-income economies would have slightly greater trade gains than high-income economies.This paper helps to further enrich the research connotation of epidemiology and international economics,and also has important enlightenment for the global economy and health governance in the post-pandemic era.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 全球贸易 关税等价效应 作用机制 贸易福利收益 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]