土地城市化推进的空间减排效应:内在机制与中国经验  

Effects of Land Urbanization on Spatial Emission Reduction:Internal Mechanism and China Experience

作　　者：李治国[1] 王杰 车帅 Li Zhiguo;Wang Jie;Che Shuai

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2021年第12期89-104,共16页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金面上项目“产业链多源数据融合的环保税税源风险评估方法应用研究”(2020BTJ060)。

摘　　要：本文基于土地利用方式转变影响产业结构的分析思路,将空间碳排放纳入动态最优化模型,理论剖析土地城市化推进的空间减排效应及其内在机制,进而将半参数与参数空间模型相结合实证考察不同类型土地城市化的空间减排效应,并重点检验产业结构的中介效应。研究发现:就全国而言,土地城市化与碳排放整体上存在倒U型关系,相较于以建成区面积表征的广度土地城市化,夜间卫星灯光数据表征的深度土地城市化与碳排放的倒U型关系更加典型且边际减排效应更为显著;分区域来看,仅东部地区土地城市化与碳排放保持稳健的倒U型关系,中部和西部地区均呈现正向单调关系;长期来看,广度土地城市化对周边地区碳排放具有抑制效应,而深度土地城市化则具有持续的促增效果;产业结构在土地城市化发挥空间减排效应的过程里中介作用显著,且这一中介效应具有非线性特征;土地城市化具有空间减排和产业结构调整的双重效应。本文据此提出,土地城市化推进应基于地方发展现状积极调整推进模式,强化区域联动发展和协同减排,同时把握产业结构转型升级的关键渠道,拓展土地城市化空间减排效应发挥的多元路径。This paper introduces the industrial structure and spatial carbon emissions into the dynamic optimized model,theoretically analyzes the spatial emission reduction effect and tests the influence mechanism with a focus on the mediation effect of industrial structure.The results show that the relationship between land urbanization and carbon emissions is inverted U-shaped at the national level.Compared with the extensive urbanization represented by built-up area,the inverted U-shaped relationship and marginal effect are more typical between the deep urbanization represented by night satellite light data and carbon emission.In terms of regions,the inverted U-shaped relationship is significant only in eastern China,while it is a positive monotonic relationship in central and western China.In the long run,extensive urbanization restrains the carbon emissions of surrounding areas,whereas deep urbanization promotes the emission.The mediation effect of industrial structure is significant for land urbanization to improve spatial emission reduction,and the effect is non-linear.Besides,land urbanization influences industrial restructuring.Consequently,this paper suggests adjusting the promotion mode of land urbanization based on local development status,strengthening regional coordination,grasping the key channels for industrial structure upgrading,and expanding multiple paths for the spatial emission reduction effect of land urbanization.

关 键 词：土地城市化 碳减排 空间溢出 产业结构 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]