土地财政的货币效应:理论机制、经验证据与政策含义——基于地级市面板数据的PVAR模型分析  

Monetary Effect of Land Finance:Theoretical Mechanism,Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications——PVAR Model Analysis Based on Panel Data of Prefecture-Level Cities

作　　者：刘朝阳 柳小慧[2] Liu Chaoyang;Liu Xiaohui

机构地区：[1]吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学经济学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2021年第11期45-58,共14页Public Finance Research

基　　金：吉林省社会科学基金项目“新发展格局下吉林省财政安全与政策着力点研究”(2021B48);吉林大学基本科研业务费哲学社会科学研究科学前沿与交叉学科创新项目“贸易顺差、城镇化改革对房地产价格的影响机制研究”(2018QY031)。

摘　　要：土地财政的货币效应命题在土地财政与金融风险之间搭起一座理论的桥梁,对于系统、深入地认识地方政府的土地财政行为具有重要的理论意义与实践意义。本文采用部门资产负债表法对土地财政的货币效应命题开展理论分析,并利用2009-2017年中国276个地级市土地财政数据,使用PVAR模型实证检验了土地财政的货币效应。研究结果表明,土地财政的直接货币效应表现为地方政府土地财政收支对货币供给的"扰动"效应,实现了货币转移功能;另外,土地财政的资本化效应起到为信用货币增信的功能;最后,土地财政的间接货币效应表现为货币创造功能,增加了中国信用货币供给量。然而,土地财政具有自我加强机制和短期剧烈波动特征,决定了其最终只能作为一种补充性财源。基于此,本文提出破除地方政府对土地财政的依赖必须进行渐进式改革,且必须与货币供给方式转型改革同步进行,加快房地产税试点和改革工作,为地方政府降低对土地财政依赖提供替代性、可持续性财源。The proposition of monetary effect of land finance builds a theoretical bridge between land finance and financial risk,and has important theoretical and practical significance for a systematic and in-depth understanding of local government’s land finance behavior.This paper adopts the departmental balance sheet method to carry out theoretical analysis of the monetary effect of land finance,and employs the land finance data of 276 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2017 to test the monetary effect of land finance by using the PVAR model.The results show that the direct monetary effect of land finance is the disturbance effect of local government’s land fiscal revenue and expenditure on money supply,which realizes the money transfer function of the government.In addition,the capitalization effect of land finance plays a role of increasing credit for credit money.Finally,the indirect monetary effect of land finance is money creation,which increases the supply of credit money in China.Based on this,this paper proposes that the gradual reform must be carried out to break the local government’s dependence on land finance,which must be carried out simultaneously with the transformation reform of the money supply mode,accelerate the legislation of family property tax,and provide alternative and sustainable financial resources for the institutional reform of local government to reduce its dependence on land finance.

关 键 词：土地财政 直接货币效应 间接货币效应 货币转移 货币创造 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F822