贸易政策不确定性与“双循环”新发展格局  

Trade Policy Uncertainty and New Development Pattern of “Dual Circulation”

作　　者：刘金全[1,2] 申瑛琦 张龙 Liu Jinquan;Shen Yingqi;Zhang Long

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学院,长春130012 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,长春130012 [3]吉林财经大学统计学院,长春130117

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2022年第2期37-46,共10页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“健全目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系的理论与实践研究”(21ZDA042),项目负责人:刘金全;吉林省教育厅科学研究项目“货币政策调控取向、多重预期与宏观调控跨周期设计研究”(JJKH20220135SK),项目负责人:张龙。

摘　　要：本文从"双循环"新发展格局框架体系和内涵出发,选取社会消费品零售总额和进出口总额指标,基于"内循环"和"外循环"双重视角刻画新世纪以来"双循环"表征变量的趋势性走势、波动特征及其与贸易政策不确定性之间的关联关系宏观表象,进一步运用三变量内生TVP-VAR模型"量化"检验贸易政策不确定性对"双循环"新发展格局的动态冲击影响。研究结果表明:新世纪以来,中国社会消费品零售总额和进出口总额总体呈现上升态势,个别阶段的波动转折符合中国经济既有事实,贸易政策不确定性与"双循环"表征变量之间可能存在反向关联关系。进一步计量检验发现,多重评价指标下贸易政策不确定性会对"双循环"表征变量产生负向影响,"外循环"表现更为显著。This paper first starts from the framework system and connotation of the new development pattern of"dual circulation"and selects the total retail sales of consumer goods index and total amount of imports and exports index.Based on the dual perspectives of"inner circulation"and"outer circulation",it describes the trend and volatility characteristics of the characterization variables of the"dual circulation"and the macroscopic appearance of the relationship between it and trade policy uncertainty since the new century.Furthermore, three-variable endogenous TVP-VAR model is used to quantitatively test the dynamic shock of trade policy uncertainty on the new development pattern of"dual circulation".The results show that total retail sales of consumer goods, total amount of imports and exports have been on the rise since the new century, and the fluctuations in individual stages are consistent with the Chinese economic facts.There is an inverse relationship between trade policy uncertainty and"dual circulation"he characterization variables.Further econometric tests show that: Under multiple evaluation indicators, trade policy uncertainty will have negative shocks on new development pattern of"dual circulation"and"outer circulation"is more significant.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 双循环 内生TVP-VAR模型 跨周期设计 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易] F014[经济管理—产业经济]