“一带一路”沿线国家通货膨胀周期的协动性研究  

Research on the Inflation Cycle Co-movements among the Countries along the Belt and Road

作　　者：邹娜[1] 蔡艳丽 郑越 ZOU Na;CAI Yan-li;ZHENG Yue(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2022年第1期124-134,共11页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(17BTJ034);中南财经政法大学博士生科研创新课题(201931307);中南财经政法大学学科统筹建设项目(XKHJ202125).

摘　　要：本文通过研究“一带一路”沿线国家通货膨胀周期的协动性及其影响因素,发现“一带一路”沿线国家通货膨胀周期波动存在较强的协幼性,究其原因很大程度上是源自发展中国家综合因素和贸易互补性因素.利用双重差分模型,文章进一步探索了“一带一路”政策的区域性和时效性,从统计分析的角度验证了该政策是切实有效的,为“一带一路”沿线国家在未来加强经济合作和政策协调提供了依据.This paper studies the co-movement and influencing factors of the inflation cycle of the countries along the Belt and Road,and finds that there are strong co-movements in the inflation cycle fluctuations of these countries.It is largely due to the comprehensive factor of developing countries and the trade complementarity factor.Using the difFerence-in-difference model,the paper further discusses the regionality and timeliness of the Belt and Road Initiative and verifies that the initiative is effective from the perspective of statistical analysis.

关 键 词：“一带一路”政策 通货膨胀 周期协动性 因子分析 聚类分析 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计] O212.6[理学—数学]