天气冲击、交通条件和社会冲突——基于清代的历史证据(1736—1910)  

Weather Shocks,Transport Conditions and Social Conflicts:Evidence from the Qing Dynasty of China(1736-1910)

作　　者：蔡杨 赵劲松[2] 何石军 Cai Yang;Zhao Jinsong;He Shijun(School of Economics,Renmin University of China;School of Economics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;Economics and Management School,Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]西南财经大学经济学院,四川成都611130 [3]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《经济科学》2022年第1期141-153,共13页Economic Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“近代中国经济指数资料整理及数据库建设”(项目编号:16ZDA132)对本研究的资助;教育部人文社科项目“宗族历史、文化规范与中国家庭的资产选择:理论与实证研究”(项目编号:19XJC790007)对本研究的资助。

摘　　要：天气冲击是导致社会冲突的主要原因之一,交通条件可能对该因果关系产生异质性影响。本文对1736—1910年的府级面板数据进行检验,结果表明,交通条件能够显著抑制天气冲击引发的农民叛乱。进一步的机制检验表明,在发生天气冲击时,交通条件较好的地区更容易通过贸易获得外界的粮食,从而可以缓解粮食短缺问题。这一结果在替换估计方法和度量指标、对子样本进行回归和增加控制变量之后仍然稳健。Weather shock is one of the main causes of social conflicts,and transport conditions may have heterogeneous effects on this causal relationship.Based on the prefecture-level panel data from 1736 to 1910,this paper tested the relationship and the results showed that the transport conditions could significantly inhibit the peasant rebellions caused by weather shocks.Further mechanism test showed that in the event of weather shocks,prefectures with better transport conditions were more likely to obtain external food through trade,which alleviated the problem of food shortage.This result was still robust after the replacement of the estimation method and the measurement index,regression for sub-samples,and the adding of control variables.

关 键 词：交通条件 社会冲突 天气冲击 农民叛乱 

分 类 号：F129[经济管理—世界经济]