中国南方主要经济作物播种面积变化时序特征及驱动因素分析  

Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Sown Area Variation for Main Economic Crops in Southern China

作　　者：王静[1] 方锋 王莺[1] WANG Jing;FANG Feng;WANG Ying(Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020;Lanzhou Regional Climate Center,Lanzhou 730020)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]兰州区域气候中心,兰州730020

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2022年第1期114-124,共11页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)第六课题“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害风险评估与对策研究”(2013CB430206);国家自然基金青年基金项目“基于遥感信息和作物生长模型同化的作物碳循环研究”(1101422);甘肃省自然科学基金项目“基于精细化资料的甘肃省极端降水格局变化及其对典型区域的风险研究”(20JR10RA454)。

摘　　要：作物播种面积是指导农业结构调整和优化的重要依据,及时了解作物播种面积时序变化特征及其驱动因素具有重要意义。笔者利用历史统计资料,选择广东、广西、四川、云南和贵州为代表区,探讨主要经济作物播种面积变化的时序特征及驱动因素。研究表明:(1)广东省油料、花生、糖料和甘蔗播种面积变化呈增-减-平趋势,油菜籽、芝麻和麻类呈增-减-增-减、增-平-减-平和下降趋势,黄红麻、烟叶和烤烟呈先增后减趋势;广西油料和花生播种面积变化呈增加趋势,芝麻、糖料和甘蔗呈先增后减趋势,棉花呈增-减-平趋势,麻类呈下降趋势,烤烟和烟叶波动较大;四川省油料、花生、油菜籽播种面积变化呈增加趋势,芝麻呈下降趋势,棉花、麻类和黄红麻呈先增后减趋势,糖料、甘蔗、烟叶和烤烟呈增-减-增-减趋势;贵州省油料、花生和油菜籽播种面积变化呈增加趋势,芝麻和棉花呈增-减-增-减和增-减-平趋势,麻类和黄红麻呈先增后减趋势,烤烟和烟叶呈增-平-减趋势,糖料和甘蔗变化剧烈;云南省油料、油菜籽和花生播种面积变化呈增-减-平-增趋势,芝麻、棉花、糖料和甘蔗呈先增后减趋势,烟叶和烤烟呈增加趋势。(2)不同省份、不同经济作物播种面积变化主要驱动因素不同,人口数量、农业技术指标以及自然灾害中,风雹灾和水灾灾害程度影响较大。The crop sown area is the basis of the adjustment and optimization of agricultural planting structure,so it is of significance to understand its temporal variation characteristics and driving factors in time.Based on historical statistical data,this paper selected five provinces in southern China(Guangdong,Guangxi,Sichuan,Yunnan and Guizhou)as representative areas to explore the temporal characteristics and driving factors of the changes in the sown areas of major economic crops in this region.The results are as follows.(1)In Guangdong,the sown area of oil,peanuts,sugar-yielding crops and sugarcane in Guangdong all displayed a trend of increase-decrease-flat;that of rapeseed,sesame and fibre showed a trend of increase-decrease-increasedecrease,increase-flat-decrease-flat and continuous decline,respectively;and that of jute,tobacco leaves and flue-cured tobacco presented a trend of first increase and then decrease.In Guangxi,the sown area of oil and peanuts displayed a trend of increase,while that of sesame,sugar-yielding crops and sugarcane showed a trend of first increase and then decrease,that of cotton and fibre showed a trend of increase-decreased-flat and continuous decline,respectively,and that of flue-cured tobacco and tobacco leaves fluctuated greatly.In Sichuan,the sown area of oil,peanut and rapeseed constantly increased,that of sesame decreased,that of cotton,fibre and jute showed a trend of first increase and then decrease,and that of sugar-yielding crops,sugarcane,tobacco leaves and flue-cured tobacco presented a trend of increase-decrease-increase-decrease.In Guizhou,the sown area of oil,peanut and rapeseed displayed an increasing trend,that of sesame and cotton showed an increase-decrease-increase-decrease trend and increase-decrease-flat trend,respectively,that of fibre and jute presented a trend of first increase and then decrease,that of tobacco leaves and flue-cured tobacco showed an increase-flat-decrease trend,and that of sugar-yielding crops and sugarcane changed heavily.In Yunnan,the sown a

关 键 词：经济作物 播种面积 时序变化特征 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F307.11[经济管理—产业经济] K901[历史地理—人文地理学]