政策推手:日本首相外交安保团队与对外决策过程  

Policy Promoter:The Diplomatic Team of Japan Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Decision-making Process

作　　者：张勇[1,2] 孟繁超 Zhang Yong;Meng Fanchao

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际关系学院 [2]中国社会科学院日本研究所 [3]中国社会科学院大学日本系

出　　处：《日本学刊》2021年第6期89-114,170,173,174,共29页Japanese Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“国际变局下中国对日传播战略研究”(编号:2021RBSB04)。

摘　　要：在日本对外决策中,究竟是谁在影响首相?作为一项有学术与现实意义的研究议程,笔者旨在回答:谁是菅义伟执政团队中负责外交安保事务的关键角色?菅义伟政府又是按照何种流程进行对外决策的?在对"首相一日"数据库进行重点使用的基础上,从对外政策分析的视角对菅义伟外交安保团队的决策模式和决策特点进行学理性分析发现,菅义伟外交安保团队的决策模式,呈现出组织过程模式和官僚政治模式相结合的特点,其中官邸官僚对首相产生了较大影响,这无疑体现了首相官邸主导之特征。就具体案例而言,在中国《海警法》出台前后以及日本酝酿西方七国集团(G7)康沃尔峰会相关议程期间,具有不同职业背景且有着不同利益诉求的关键角色直接或间接影响了首相官邸在对外决策时的判断。新近登场的岸田文雄内阁的外交安保团队尚未完全定型,仍待持续跟踪观察。Who really influences the prime minister in Japan’s foreign policy making?With the issue of academic and practical significance,the article aims to answer the question who are the key players in foreign and security affairs in Suga’s policy team,and what process the Suga administration follows to make foreign policy decisions?Based on the database of"Prime Minister’s one Day",a theoretical analysis is made on the decision-making mode and characteristics of Suga’spolicy team from the perspective of foreign policy analysis.The decision-making mode of Suga’s diplomatic and security team is characterized by the combination of organizational process mode and bureaucratic politics mode,in which the bureaucrats in the prime minister’s office have a great influence on the prime minister,which undoubtedly reflects the dominant characteristics of the prime minister’s office.In specific cases,before and after the enactment of China’s Maritime Police Law and during Japan’s preparation for the G7 Summit,key actors with different professional backgrounds and different interests directly or indirectly influenced the judgment of the prime minister’s office in making foreign decisions.The diplomatic and national security team of the newly unveiled Kishida cabinet has yet to be fully formed and remains to be closely watched.

关 键 词：首相外交安保团队 决策模式 首相官邸主导 岸田文雄内阁 中日关系 

分 类 号：D831.3[政治法律—政治学]