基于“3060”目标的中国钢铁行业二氧化碳减排路径与潜力分析  

Analysis of CO_(2)emission reduction path and potential of China′s steel industry under the"3060"target

作　　者：赵紫薇 孔福林 童莉葛 尹少武[1,2] 解雅茹 王立[1,2] ZHAO Zi-wei;KONG Fu-lin;TONG Li-ge;YIN Shao-wu;XIE Ya-ru;WANG Li(School of Energy and Environmental Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction for Metallurgical Industry,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Hangzhou Hangyang Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310005,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学能源与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京科技大学冶金工业节能减排北京市重点实验室,北京100083 [3]杭州杭氧股份有限公司,浙江杭州310005

出　　处：《钢铁》2022年第2期162-174,共13页Iron and Steel

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFB0606104)。

摘　　要：中国钢产量占世界总产量的56.7%,CO_(2)排放占世界钢铁总排放的72.5%,占全国碳排放的15%。为实现"3060"目标,对国内外钢铁行业现状、减碳路径与潜力进行了分析,探讨了短流程、能源结构调整和余能利用对碳减排的贡献度及碳税对减碳的影响。进出口方面,中国2020年钢铁出口量占世界总出口量的12.8%,占中国钢铁产量的4.8%,以满足内需为主,适当增加废钢进口量可减少碳税,同时降低中国对铁矿石的依赖度,提高中国在原材料市场的议价权;当短流程占比提高至30%时,预计每年减碳3.8亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为2.09%,减少碳税152亿美元;采取70%废钢+30%DRI电炉炼钢流程时,可实现碳减排0.7亿t,对2030年的减碳贡献达0.39%,减少28亿美元碳税。实施氧气高炉技术、氢能冶炼技术及CCUS技术,可减碳49.55亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为24.6%,减少碳税1982亿美元。其中,氢能冶炼减碳效果最显著,可减碳42.63亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为20.79%,减少碳税1705.2亿美元,其次为氧气高炉,可减碳3.42亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为1.88%,减少碳税136.8亿美元。若高品位余能全部得到有效利用,预计可减碳1.39亿~1.4亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为0.77%,减少碳税55.84亿美元。当低品位余能利用率从30%提高至50%时,预计减碳0.66亿t,贡献率为0.36%,减少碳税26.4亿美元。为实现"3060"目标,中国钢铁行业短期内可提高短流程覆盖率,同时加速研发氧气高炉、氢能冶炼、储能、余能梯级利用等减碳新技术。China′s steel production accounts for 56.7%of the world′s total output,CO_(2)emissions account for 72.5%of the world’s total steel emissions and 15%of national carbon emissions.To achieve the target of"3060",this paper analyzed the current situation of steel industries at home and abroad,as well as their emission reduction path and potential.Further,it discussed the impact of short process,energy structure adjustment,waste energy utilization and carbon tax on emission reduction.In terms of import and export,China′s steel exports in 2020 accounted for 12.8%of the world′s total exports,while accounted for 4.8%of China′s steel production,indicating that China′s steel production was mainly to meet the domestic demand.Increasing the amount of scrap steel imports appropriately can reduce the burden of carbon tax and China′s dependence on iron ore,and enhance the country′s bargaining power in the raw material market.When the proportion of short process rises to 30%,it is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 380 million tons per year,contributing 2.09%to the 2030 target and reducing USD 152 billion of carbon tax.When the EAF(Electric Arc Furnace)process of 70%scrap steel+30%DRI(Direct Reduced Iron)is adopted,a total carbon reduction of 70 million tons can be achieved,contributing 0.39%to 2030 target emissions reduction and achieving carbon tax savings of USD 2.8 billion.Implementation of oxygen blast furnace,hydrogen metallurgy and CCUS(Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage)technologies can project to achieve carbon reduction of 4.955 billion tons,with a contribution rate of 24.6%to carbon reduction of year 2030 and a carbon tax reduction of USD 198.2 billion.Among them,hydrogen metallurgy has the most significant effect,which can take away 4.263 billion tons of carbon,contributing 20.79%to carbon reduction of year 2030 and USD 170.52 billion carbon tax reduction.And it is followed by oxygen blast furnace,which can take away 342 million tons of carbon,contributing 1.88%to carbon reduction of year 203

关 键 词：钢铁工业 节能技术 二氧化碳减排 余热回收 短流程 能源供应 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.31[经济管理—产业经济]