结合巴斯模型及SIR模型的微信公众号内容双层传播模型  

Two-layer Transmission Model of WeChat Public Account with Bass Model and SIR Model

作　　者：杨思洛[1,2] 肖敖夏 Yang Siluo;Xiao Aoxia(School of Information Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Research Center for Chinese Science Evaluation(RCCSE),Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学信息管理学院,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学科学评价研究中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《数据分析与知识发现》2021年第12期74-87,共14页Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:18BTQ079)的研究成果之一。

摘　　要：【目的】引入巴斯模型,弥补当前微信公众号内容传播研究中忽略其双层传播模式的不足。【方法】通过对微信公众号内容传播过程的分析,提出结合巴斯模型和SIR模型的微信公众号内容传播模型。利用"图情会"公众号数据对模型拟合情况进行KS检验。利用Python语言对模型中参数及模型初始条件进行分析。【结果】模型总体上能够对公众号内容的传播过程进行模拟。已分享过的读者不再进行分享的概率,以及非公众号订阅用户从他人转发分享中接触到信息的概率对公众号内容在目标群体中的扩散范围有较大影响。【局限】本模型没有结合复杂网络模型作进一步分析,验证数据缺少阅读量"10万+"文章数据。【结论】本研究提出的模型能够对微信公众号内容的传播监控及舆情管理提供一定的理论支撑。[Objective]This paper constructs a double-layer transmission model for the content transmission of WeChat public accounts with the help of Bass model.[Methods]First,we analyzed the transmission process of the WeChat official account articles.Then,we developed a two-layer model combining the Bass diffusion model and the SIR model.Third,we conducted KS test using data from the public account of“Library and Information Conference”.Finally,we analyzed the parameters and the initial conditions of the model with Python.[Results]The new model simulated the transmission process of the public account contents.The probability of readers no longer sharing,as well as the non-subscribers’exposure to information from other’s sharing,have greater impacts on the dissemination of contents.[Limitations]This model did not include the complex network model for further analysis and did not study articles accessed by more than 100,000 times.[Conclusions]The proposed model could help us monitor the dissemination of WeChat public account contents and manage online opinion.

关 键 词：微信公众号 传播模型 巴斯扩散模型 SIR模型 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]