美国的阿富汗退出战略探析  

Ending the Afghanistan War: A Study of U. S. “Exit Strategy”

作　　者：张帆[1] ZHANG Fan

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2021年第4期37-53,126,127,共19页Contemporary American Review

摘　　要：海外军事干预是美国对外战略的重要特征,国际政治学界近年提出的"退出战略"理论,为考察美国如何结束海外军事干预提供了重要路径。美国结束阿富汗战争的"退出战略"主要源于美国总统的"阿富汗战争观",奥巴马、特朗普和拜登均认为,阿富汗在美国国家战略中的地位日趋降低,阿富汗战争的前景日益暗淡。以此认知为基础,这三位总统在任职期间均致力于从阿富汗撤军,结束阿富汗战争,并为此通过一系列的战略表述,以国家利益为由,为结束阿富汗战争的决策进行辩护的同时,提出结束阿富汗战争"退出战略"的军事目标和政治目标,即在从阿富汗撤军的同时力争保持此次海外军事干预行动的成果,包括使阿富汗不再成为恐怖主义的"庇护所"以及维持阿富汗政府的续存。美国在逐步减少驻阿美军的同时,试图通过与塔利班的直接谈判,确保上述目标的实现。由于没有能将此次"退出战略"实施中的政治层面与军事层面有效结合,美国在完成从阿富汗撤军的同时,未能实现其理想的"结束状态"。为全面和深入考察美国海外军事干预的"退出战略",本文以比较分析为研究路径,探析独具美国战略特色的"退出战略"。Overseas military interventions constitute a critical part of U. S.foreign strategy. The theory of "Exit Strategy"emerging in academics of IR provides us a platform to study how the U. S. ends overseas military interventions. The "Exit Strategy"for ending the Afghanistan War mainly originated from the views on it of the recent three presidents. Obama,Trump and Biden all recognized the declining status of Afghanistan in American national strategy,and bleak prospect for the war to be continued.Based on similar assessment,the three presidents all have been devoted to withdraw from Afghanistan and to end the War. In ending the war,the U. S. national interest has been repeatedly referred to as strategic justification with political and military aims to be achieved,defending Afghanistan from once again being a terrorist "sanctuary"and the survival of existing government. While gradually withdrawing from Afghanistan,the U. S. strived to achieve these aims through direct negotiations with Taliban. Failing to coordinate military and political means well in carrying out the "Exit Strategy",the U. S. has not managed to achieve the ideal"end state". For an indepth observation of U. S. "Exit Strategy",this article will explore its uniqueness from a comparative perspective.

关 键 词：阿富汗战争 “退出战略” 美国海外军事干预 美国阿富汗政策 

分 类 号：E712[军事—军事理论] E372