2009—2019年中国心脑血管疾病死亡率趋势分析  

Trends in mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in China,2009-2019

作　　者：向祥龙 王琦琦[1] 李俊琦 高瑞 王淑君 胡池[2] 于石成[1] XIANG Xiang-long;WANG Qi-qi;LI Jun-qi;GAO Rui;WANG Shu-jun;HU Chi;YU Shi-cheng(Office of epidemiology,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学办公室,北京102206 [2]宜昌市疾病预防控制中心慢病所,宜昌湖北443005

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2021年第11期811-818,共8页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1315305)。

摘　　要：目的分析2009—2019年我国不同区域、城乡、性别和年龄组心脑血管疾病死亡率及死因构成比轨迹变化趋势,探讨不同因素组合的心脑血管疾病死亡率及死因构成比的亚组分类和变化轨迹。方法从《全国疾病监测系统死因监测数据集》中整理并获取2009—2019年心脑血管疾病的区域别(东、中、西部)、城乡别、性别及年龄组死亡率和死因构成比数据,应用轨迹模型分析60种组合的心脑血管疾病、缺血性心脏病、脑血管疾病死亡率和缺血性心脏病、脑血管疾病死因构成比(占心脑血管疾病的百分比)随年份的变化趋势。结果轨迹模型分析结果显示,不同区域、城乡、性别和年龄组的60种组合的心脑血管疾病、缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病死亡率随年份变化的轨迹均可分为3个亚组,亚组轨迹函数阶次分别为0阶、0(或1)阶、2阶。亚组分类结果显示,3种疾病中年龄组均为主要的差异因素,区域、城乡和性别因素并未显示明显的差异性变化轨迹;东、中、西部城乡男女及40~<70岁年龄组为第1亚组,死亡率随年份变化基本维持稳定,死亡率在3个亚组中最低;70~<80岁年龄组为第2亚组,死亡率随年份变化在一个常数上下波动;≥80岁年龄组为第3亚组,死亡率随年份变化先下降,然后逐渐上升。死因构成比的轨迹模型结果,60种组合的缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病的死因构成比均可分为3个亚组,阶次分别为2阶、1阶、1阶和1阶、1阶、2阶。缺血性心脏病死因构成比中区域为主要差异因素,西部地区集中在第1亚组,死因构成比随年份在逐渐上升,且上升幅度在变大;中东部地区分布在第2和第3亚组。50~<80岁年龄组脑血管疾病死因构成比集中在第3亚组,随年份逐渐下降,且下降幅度在变大。结论我国心脑血管疾病、缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病的死亡率及缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病的死因构成比随�Objective To understand the trends in mortality and constituent ratio of cause-of-death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in different population in China from 2009to 2019,and to explore factor associated with the changes in mortality and constituent ratio of cause-of-death.Methods Mortality data of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were retrieved from National Disease Surveillance System Mortality Surveillance Data Set 2009—2019and were analyzed by regions(eastern,central and western regions),urban and rural areas,sex and age(5age groups).The trajectory model was used to analyze the trends in mortality and cause-of-death constituent ratio(ratio of ischemic heart disease or ratio of cerebrovascular diseases to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases)of 60combinations of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,ischemic heart disease,and cerebrovascular diseases over the years.Results The analysis of trajectory model showed that 60combinations of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,ischemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases in different regions,urban and rural areas,genders and age groups could be divided into 3subgroups,wth the orders of the trajectory function of each subgroup of zero,zero(or one),and two.The classification of the subgroups showed that age was the major factor for the differences in 3diseases.The overall mortality rate remained relatively stable over the years in the first subgroup(40-<70years old)and was the lowest among 3subgroups,while it fluctuated in the second subgroup(70-<80years old),however in the third subgroup(≥80years old),it decreased in the first couple years then gradually increased.Trajectory model analysis showed that the constituent ratio of cause-of-death of 60combinations of ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease could be divided into 3subgroups,with the order of two,one,one and one,one and two.Region was the major factor in the difference of cause-of-death constituent ratio of ischemic heart disease.The consti

关 键 词：心脑血管疾病 死亡率 死因构成比 轨迹模型 变化趋势 

分 类 号：R541[医药卫生—心血管疾病] R743[医药卫生—内科学]