全球减贫成效的变化趋势与影响因素研究  

Research on Changing Trends and Influencing Factors of Global Poverty Reduction Effectiveness

作　　者：易成栋[1] 樊正德 刘小奇 高菠阳[1] Yi Chengdong

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2021年第6期12-26,126,共16页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：文章在分析全球极端贫困人口数量和发生率变化趋势的基础上,构建分布动态学模型,对减贫成效进行多维测度,并实证检验影响减贫效果的因素。研究发现:(1)全球多数区域极端贫困人口数量与贫困发生率呈下降趋势,但非洲贫困问题依旧严峻。(2)全球深度贫困和消除极端贫困类型国家占比上升,轻度贫困类型国家占比下降,贫困水平的固化程度严重。(3)全球绝对减贫成效存在区域差异,其中非洲的绝对减贫成效指数最低;亚洲和欧洲该指数较高,且上升趋势明显,美洲和大洋洲该指数下降。(4)以绝对减贫成效指数和相对减贫成效指数衡量的全球减贫效果均向好,但存在"质高量低"的情况,即贫困类型和净贫困类型向好的国家在总贫困国家中占比较低,而这类国家中消除极端贫困的国家占比较高。(5)发展经济、提高就业率和提升贸易开放度是促进脱贫的重要举措。因此,文章认为,未来减贫工作应注重发展经济,消除深度贫困水平固化,巩固"脱贫"防止"返贫",追求"质量并举"。Based on the analysis of the trend of changes in the number and incidence of extreme poverty in the world,the paper constructs a dynamic model of distribution,carries out multi-dimensional measurement of the effectiveness of poverty reduction,and empirically examines the factors influencing the effect of poverty reduction.The results are as follows.(1)The number and incidence of extreme poverty are declining in most regions of the world,but Africa is still severe.(2)The proportion of deep poverty and the elimination of extreme poverty are on the rise,while the proportion of light poverty is declining,and the level of poverty is seriously solidified.(3)There are regional differences in the effectiveness of absolute poverty reduction in the world.Among them,Africa’s absolute poverty reduction effectiveness index is the lowest.Asia and Europe not only have high index but also have a clear upward trend.The index of America and Oceania are declining.(4)Global poverty reduction measured by absolute poverty reduction effectiveness index or relative poverty reduction effectiveness index is improving,but there are situations where“Quality”is high and“Quantity”is low,that is,the proportion of countries with improving poverty types and net poverty types in total poor countries are relatively low,while the percentage of countries with eliminating extreme poverty is relatively high among these countries.(5)Economic development,increasing employment and enhancing trade openness are powerful measures to promote poverty eradication.Therefore,the paper argues that future poverty reduction should focus on economic development,with emphasis on eliminating deep poverty,consolidating“poverty eradication”and preventing“returning to poverty”and“equalizing quality”.

关 键 词：减贫成效 分布动态学 绝对减贫成效指数 相对减贫成效指数 

分 类 号：F113.9[经济管理—国际贸易]