湖南省新型冠状病毒肺炎序列间隔研究  

Serial interval of COVID-19 in Hunan Province

作　　者：刘子言 胡世雄[1] 罗垲炜[1] 戴志辉 赵善露 曾舸[1] 杨浩[1] 孙倩莱[1] 张恒娇[1] 邓志红[1] 张斯钰[1] 黄一伟[1] 肖洁华[1] 高立冬[1] LIU Zi-yan;HU Shi-xiong;LUO Kai-wei;DAI Zhi-hui;ZHAO Shan-lu;ZENG Ge;YANG Hao;SUN Qian-lai;ZHANG Heng-jiao;DENG Zhi-hong;ZHANG Si-yu;HUANG Yi-wei;XIAO Jie-hua;GAO Li-dong(Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Changsha,Hunan 410008,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省疾病预防控制中心/中国医学科学院湖南新发突发传染病防治工作站,湖南长沙410005

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2022年第2期178-181,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖南省重点领域研发计划社会发展领域重点研发项目(2020SK3012湖南省新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情监测系统研究);中国医学科学院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(2020HY320003湖南省新冠病毒病原学及传播特性研究)。

摘　　要：目的分析87起由密切接触导致的新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情的序列间隔,为制定防控策略和措施提供依据。方法收集2020年1—2月湖南省报告的新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情病例资料,根据原发病例与续发病例的发病时间,采用中位数方法估算序列间隔,采用秩和检验比较不同代际关系、原发病例不同发病-隔离时间段的序列间隔的差异,描述2起序列间隔为负值的聚集性疫情详细信息。结果新型冠状病毒肺炎中位序列间隔6 d,四分位数为7 d;不同代际关系的序列间隔差异无统计学意义;原发病例发病-隔离间隔时间段为11 d及以上、6~10 d的中位序列间隔分别为10、8 d,均长于原发病例发病-隔离时间段为0~5 d的中位序列间隔4 d(P<0.05);病例最早在发病前7 d即具有传播能力。结论新型冠状病毒肺炎序列间隔比严重急性呼吸道综合征、中东呼吸综合征短,有效传播速度更快;及早对原发病例进行隔离与治疗,序列间隔将缩短,流行初期的研究反映干预前实际传播速度;新型冠状病毒肺炎病例在发病时即具有较强的传染性;部分代际传播发生在原发病例发病前,建议有条件地区可将适当延长病例发病前的调查及密切接触者判定的时间范围。Objective To analyze the serial interval of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in 87 cluster epidemics caused by close contact so as to provide a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods Data regarding COVID-19 cluster cases reported in Hunan Province from January to February 2020 were collected.The serial interval of COVID-19 cases was estimated by median according to the illness onset of primary cases and secondary cases.The differences in serial intervals between different generations and in primary cases with different onset-quarantine intervals were compared by rank sum test,and the information about 2 cluster epidemics with negative serial interval was described.Results The median serial interval of COVID-19 was 6 days,and the quartile interval was 7 days.There was no statistically significant difference in serial interval between different generations.The serial intervals of primary cases with the onset-quarantine interval being 11 days and above and 6-10 days were 10 and 8 days,which were both longer than 4 days in primary cases with the onset-quarantine interval being 0-5 days(P<0.05).Transmission might occur as early as 7 days before the onset of illness.Conclusion The median serial interval of COVID-19 is shorter than those of severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome,and the effective transmission is faster.Early quarantine and treatment of primary cases will shorten the serial interval.Studies in the early stages of epidemic reflect the actual ability of transmission before intervention.COVID-19 cases are highly infectious at the time of illness onset.A proportion of secondary transmission occurs prior to the illness onset of primary cases,and time range for investigation and determination of close contacts can be expanded in the areas where conditions permit.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 序列间隔 流行病学 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]