美国量化宽松政策对中国CPI影响的阶段性特征  

Periodical Characteristics of the Impact of American Quantitative Easing Policy on China’s CPI

作　　者：黄秀海 HUANG Xiu-hai(School of Data Science,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学数据科学学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《统计学报》2022年第1期40-50,共11页Journal of Statistics

基　　金：浙江省社科规划课题(20NDJC135YB);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJA910003);国家社科基金项目(21BTJ032);浙江省一流学科A类(浙江财经大学统计学)资助。

摘　　要：如何抵制美元不断贬值带来的输入性通货膨胀是发展中国家需要不断探索的重要问题。本文根据2000—2021年的月度数据,运用B;断点估计法分析了美国量化宽松政策导致中国CPI结构突变的问题,并基于时变概率Markov区制转换(MS-TVTP)模型分析了中国CPI在不同区制内的运行特征。结果显示:美国量化宽松政策总体上对中国CPI具有一定的正向影响,且在不同时期具有显著差异性特征,但近年来这种影响越来越弱,并有一定程度的反转趋势;MS-TVTP分析显示,中国CPI在高增长区制内的稳态概率大于低增长区制,具有偏好高增长区制的特征。To resist the imported inflation caused by the continuous depreciation of the US dollar is an important issue for developing countries to make a continuously exploration.Based on the monthly data from 2000 to 2021,the paper used the B_P breakpoint estimation method to discuss the effect of American quantitative easing on China’s CPI structural mutation.Meanwhile,the paper used the MS-TVTP model to analyze the operation characteristics of China’s CPI in different region systems.The empirical results showed that the quantitative easing in the United States had a certain positive impact on China’s CPI in general,but there were significant differences in different periods.In recent years,the heterogeneity has been getting smaller and smaller,and there was a reverse trend.MS-TVTP analysis revealed that the steady-state probability of China’s CPI in high-growth zone system was higher than that in low-growth zone system,which showed a preference for high-growth zone system.

关 键 词：量化宽松 CPI B_P断点估计 MS-TVTP模型 输入性通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F014.31[经济管理—政治经济学]