Advanced Method for Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather and Local-scale Hazards  

作　　者：V.Spiridonov N.Sladić B.Jakimovski M.Ćurić 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Physics,Ss.Cyril and Methodius University,Skopje,Macedonia [2]International University of Sarajevo,Sarajevo,Bosnia,and Herzegovina [3]Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering,Ss.Cyril and Methodius University,Skopje,Macedonia [4]Institute of Meteorology,University of Belgrade,Belgrade,Serbia

出　　处：《Journal of Atmospheric Science Research》2022年第1期34-53,共20页大气科学研究（英文）

摘　　要：Hurricane Ida ferociously affected many south-eastern and eastern parts of the United States,making it one of the strongest hurricanes in recent years.Advanced forecast and warning tool has been used to track the path of the ex-Hurricane,Ida,as it left New Orleans on its way towards the northeast,accurately predicting significant supercell development above New York City on September 01,2021.This advanced method accurately detected the area with the highest possible level of convective instability with 24-h lead time and even Level 5,devised in the categorical outlooks legend of the system.Therefore,an extreme level implied a very high probability of the local-scale hazard occurring above the NYC.Cloud model output fields(updrafts and downdrafts,wind shear,near-surface convergence,the vertical component of relative vorticity)show the rapid development of a strong supercell storm with rotating updrafts and a mesocyclone.The characteristic hook-shaped echo signature visible in the reflectivity patterns indicates a signal for a highly precipitable(HP)supercell with the possibility of tornado initiation.Open boundary conditions represent a good basis for simulating a tornado that evolved from a supercell storm,initialized with initial data obtained from a real-time simulation in the period when the bow echo and tornado-like signature occurred.Тhe modeled results agree well with the observations.

关 键 词：Severe convection HURRICANE Supercell storm Rotating updrafts MESOCYCLONE Tornadogenesis Environmental flooding Local scale hazard 

分 类 号：P44[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]