DGM(2,1)预测模型在城市空气质量指标预测中的应用  

Application of DGM(2,1)Prediction Model in Urban Air Quality Index Prediction

作　　者：朱溦[1] 黄辉凡 丁美亚 ZHU Wei;HUANG Hui-fan;DING Mei-ya(Department of Mathematics,Quzhou University,Quzhou 324000,China)

机构地区：[1]衢州学院数理系,浙江衢州324000

出　　处：《宜春学院学报》2021年第12期41-45,共5页Journal of Yichun University

摘　　要：本文以衢州市为例对城市空气质量指标进行预测分析。首先分别利用最小二乘预测模型、灰色预测模型中DGM(2,1)预测模型和Verhulst模型对衢州市的空气质量指数AQI进行预测分析,其次对比分析三种预测模型的预测效果,得出灰色预测模型中的DGM(2,1)预测模型是最优的预测模型,最后利用DGM(2,1)预测模型对衢州市未来五年内空气质量指数变化趋势进行预测,以助力城市空气治理。Quzhou City is taken as an example to analyze the city air quality.Firstly,the air quality indexes(AQI)of Quzhou City were analyzed by the Least-squares Prediction Model,Grey Forecasting Model and Verhulst Model.Then,after comparing the equivalent prediction effects of those three forecasting models,DGM(2,1)of Grey Forecasting Model was eventually selected as the optimal prediction model.Finally,DGM(2,1)Forecasting Model is used to predict the change trend of the air quality index in Quzhou for following five years to help its urban air governance.

关 键 词：AQI 最小二乘预测模型 灰色预测 DGM(2 1)预测模型 

分 类 号：X831[环境科学与工程—环境工程]