叙利亚危机的历程、影响与重建前景  

The Syria Crisis:Timeline,Implication and Reconstruction Prospect

作　　者：刘冬[1] Liu Dong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所

出　　处：《中东研究》2021年第2期33-59,332,333,共29页Middle East Studies

摘　　要：叙利亚危机爆发前,叙贫困问题、失业问题、地区发展差距问题持续发酵,政治改革又造成统治精英的裂痕和基层治理能力的下降。叙利亚经济、政治隐患为后来危机的爆发与持续扩大埋下了伏笔。在外部力量的强势影响下,叙利亚危机爆发后很快从群众游行示威运动发展为武装冲突,最终演变为全面内战。在反对派武装和“伊斯兰国”的打击下,叙政府丢失大片国土,巴沙尔政权一度岌岌可危,直到2015年9月,在俄罗斯武装力量的支援下,叙政府才开始进入战略反攻,而在美国、土耳其的强势干预下,叙全面收复失地的努力陷入僵局,2019年以后,叙内战也进入战略相持阶段。地面战争的僵持,也造成叙利亚政府、土耳其支持下的叙反对派、美国支持下的库尔德人三股力量的割据分裂状况。而在经济方面,持续的战乱和美欧实施的经济制裁对叙经济造成严重影响,叙经济至今仍未摆脱战时经济状态。尽管叙危机已过去十年,但叙国内、国外各派力量诉求的巨大差异、叙政府资金短缺以及美欧实施的经济制裁,决定了叙政治和经济重建都将是异常艰难和漫长的过程。Before the outbreak of the Syria Crisis,the problems of poverty,unemployment and the development gap in Syria continued to deteriorate,while the political reform caused cracks in the ruling elite and the decline of grass-roots governance ability.Both of the above mentioned political and economical factors,laid the risks for the outbreak and the continuous expansion of the later crisis.Under the strong influences of external forces,after the outbreak of the Syrian crisis,the Syrian crisis quickly developed from mass demonstrations to armed conflicts,and finally evolved into a full-scale civil war.The Syrian government has lost much of its territory under the attack of the armed rebels and“ISIL”,and the regime of Bashar al-Assad was at one time in jeopardy.It was not until September 2015,with the support of Russian armed forces,that the Syrian government began a strategic counteroffensive.However,under the strong intervention of the US and Turkey,Syria's efforts to fully recover the ground have been stalled.And since 2019,the civil war in Syria has also entered a stage of strategic stalemate.The stalemate in the battlefield has also split Syria into three parts:the Syrian government,the Turkey-backed opposition party,and the US-backed Kurdish party.In addition,the continuous war and the economic sanctions imposed by the US and Europe have also caused serious damage to the Syrian economy,which has not yet gotten rid of the wartime economic status.In terms of economy,the continuous war and the economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU have caused serious damage to the Syrian economy,which has not yet gotten rid of the wartime economic status.Although a decade has passed since the outbreak of Syrian crisis,the huge differences in demands of various factions in Syria and abroad,the shortage of funds of the Syrian government and the economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU all determine that the political and economic reconstruction of Syria will be an extremely difficult and long process.

关 键 词：叙利亚危机 政治重建 经济重建 国际关系 

分 类 号：D737.6[政治法律—政治学]