中东剧变十年:经济转型困境与发展机遇  

Decade of The Upheaval in the Middle East:The Delimma of Economic Transformation and The Pportunity of Development

作　　者：姜英梅[1] Jiang Yingmei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所

出　　处：《中东研究》2021年第2期149-172,337,共25页Middle East Studies

摘　　要：中东剧变十年来,中东经济整体陷入衰退,迄今没有哪个国家实现成功转型,大多数国家并未走出“三高一低”的经济困境。中东经济发展仍表现为外向型的经济增长模式和食利性经济特点。中东经济衰退的根源在于国家治理能力低下以及缺乏稳定、公正和有利的国内外经济发展环境。百年未有之大变局下,中东经济正遭受新冠肺炎疫情和低油价的双重打击,石油出口国在国际能源市场和世界能源地缘政治中的地位逐渐下降,中东国家仍未找到符合自身特点的独立发展道路。然而,从长远来看,人类和平与发展的诉求并未改变,中东国家正努力提升国家治理能力,加快石油出口国经济多元化和石油进口国经济改革转型,抓住新经济业态,大力发展数字经济。未来,探索独立自主的发展道路,仍是中东各国政府面临的首要任务和重大考验。Middle East economy as a whole has fallen into recession since the Middle East Upheaval.So far,no country has achieved successful transformation,and most countries have not come out of the economic dilemma of“three high and one low”.The economic development of the Middle East is still characterized by an export-oriented economic growth model and a profit-making economy.The root of the Middle East economic recession lies in the low ability of national governance and the lack of stable,just and favorable domestic and international economic development environment.Under the great changes that have not happened in a century,the Middle East economy is suffering from the double blow of Covid-19 pandemic and low oil price.The status of oil exporting countries in the international energy market and world energy geopolitics is gradually declining.Middle East countries have not yet found their own independent development path.However,the demands for human peace and development have not changed in the long run.Middle East countries are striving to improve their national governance capacity,accelerate the economic diversification of oil exporting countries and the economic reform and transformation of oil importing countries,seize the new economic formats,and vigorously develop the digital economy.In the future,exploring an independent development path is still the primary task and major test for governments in the Middle East.

关 键 词：中东剧变 中东经济 中东能源 经济衰退 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]