“1·25”革命以来的埃及经济改革:成就、挑战及前景  

Egyptian Economic Reform since the“January 25th”Revolution:Achievements,Challenges and Prospects

作　　者：王琼[1] 安雨康 Wang Qiong;An Yukang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所 [2]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《中东研究》2021年第2期189-207,339,共20页Middle East Studies

摘　　要：穆巴拉克执政后期,埃及政府难以满足民众对充分就业、经济繁荣的基本诉求,国际粮价暴涨导致埃及居民生活水平骤然下降,成为埃及普通民众反抗穆巴拉克政府的催化剂。穆尔西上台执政后,穆兄会政府未将施政重心放在经济治理上,汇率改革更加剧了食品和燃料油的短缺,招致底层民众的普遍反对。塞西执政后,大力推行汇率和财税改革,把握多边金融机构援助和国际大宗商品价格稳定的外部机遇,加大对基础设施和能源领域投资,取得了显著的经济改革成效。但制造业基础薄弱、外债压力大、人口增长过快、贫困人口比重过高、粮食和水资源短缺等结构性问题仍将长期制约埃及经济社会发展,未来仍有进一步激化社会矛盾,威胁埃及政治稳定的可能。In the later period of Mubarak's administration,the Egyptian government could not meet the basic demands of the people for full employment and economic prosperity,and the sharp rise in international food prices led to a sudden decline in the living standards of Egyptian residents.It has become a catalyst for ordinary Egyptians to resist Mubarak's government.After Morsi came to power,the Brotherhood government did not focus on economic governance,and the exchange rate reform exacerbated the shortage of food and fued oil,causing widespread opposition from the people at the bottom.After taking office,Sisi vigorously carried out exchange rate and fiscal and tax reforms,seized the external opportunities of assistance from multilateral financial institutions and stable international commodity prices,increased investment in infrastructure and energy,and achieved remarkable results in economic reform.However,structural problems such as weak manufacturing foundation,great pressure on foreign debt,excessive population growth,excessive proportion of poor people,and shortage of food and water resources will still restrict Egypt's economic and social development for a long time,and there is still the possibility of further intensifying social contradictions and threatening Egypt's political stability in the future.

关 键 词：埃及 经济改革 金融稳定 社会发展 

分 类 号：D741.1[政治法律—政治学] F141.1[政治法律—中外政治制度]