基于开放式水资源嵌入型CGE模型的税改政策经济影响与节水效应  

Economic impact and water saving effect of tax reform policy based on open water resources embedded CGE model

作　　者：吴正 田贵良[1,2,3] 胡雨灿 WU Zheng;TIAN Guiliang;HU Yucan(School of Business,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Jiangsu Research Base of Yangtze Institute for Conservation and High-Quality Development,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211100 [2]河海大学经济与经融学院,南京211100 [3]江苏长江保护与高质量发展研究基地,南京210098

出　　处：《资源科学》2021年第11期2264-2276,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(19FJYB029);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B200207011)。

摘　　要：水资源费改税是中国政府为促进水资源有效节约和可持续利用而实施的重要价格改革措施,政策实施的节水效应和经济影响是决定税改工作能否全国推广的重要依据之一。本文以首个水资源税改试点——河北省为例,在对标准社会核算矩阵(SAM表)进行拓展的同时,构建了开放式水资源嵌入型一般均衡模型(CGE),并设置了3种情景来模拟实施的水资源税改政策对河北省的经济运行状况的影响。结果表明:①征收水资源税在短期内会对宏观经济产生一定的负面影响,但从长期的角度来看,实施水资源税政策可以有效促进水资源的节约保护,提高企业对水资源的使用效率,有利于生态文明建设和经济社会环境的可持续发展;②不同行业对水资源的依赖程度存在差异,因此差异化的水资源税改政策能更有效地达成节水目标,实现更理想的政策效果;③对水资源税进行转移支付可以发挥税收的调节作用,有效减轻征税所造成的福利损失,在实现理想的节水效果的同时减少对经济和社会的负面影响。最后提出各省在实施水资源税改政策时要从政策制定、政策执行和税收使用3个方面统筹协调的政策建议。Water resources tax reform is an important price reform measure implemented by the Chinese government to promote the effective conservation and sustainable utilization of water resources.The water-saving effect and economic impact of policy implementation are one of the important bases for determining whether the tax reform can be promoted nationwide.Taking Hebei Province the first pilot province of water resources tax reform as an example,this study constructed an open water resources embedded computable general equilibrium model(CGE)while expanding the standard social accounting matrix(SAM table),and three scenarios were set up to simulate the economic impact of the implementation of the water resources tax reform policy on Hebei Province.The results show that:(1)Levying water resources tax will have a certain negative impact on the macro economy in the short term,but from a long-term perspective,the implementation of water resources tax policy can effectively promote the conservation and protection of water resources,improve the efficiency of enterprises in the use of water resources,and is conducive to the construction of ecological civilization and the sustainable development of economic and social environments;(2)Different industries have different dependencies on water resources,so the differentiated water resources tax reform policy can more effectively achieve the goal of water saving and achieve better policy results;(3)The transfer payment of water resources tax can play the role of tax regulation,effectively reduce the welfare loss caused by taxation,and reduce the negative impact on economy and society while achieving the ideal water saving effect.Finally,the article puts forward the policy recommendation that the provinces of China should coordinate policy making,policy implementation,and tax use in the process of water resources tax reform.

关 键 词：水资源税 节水效应 经济影响 社会核算矩阵 开放式水资源嵌入型CGE模型 政策模拟 河北省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F812.42[经济管理—财政学]