考虑灾民恐慌心理影响的应急资源配置优化研究  

Research on the emergency resource allocation considering the psychological panic spread

作　　者：曲冲冲 田歆[2,3] 刘淑芹 周永圣[5] Qu Chongchong;Tian Xin;Liu Shuqin;Zhou Yongsheng(School of Business,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Management,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China;School of E-Business and Logistics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院,北京100872 [2]中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心,北京100190 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [4]中央民族大学管理学院,北京100081 [5]北京工商大学电商与物流学院,北京100048

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2021年第6期721-730,共10页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：中国人民大学2020年度拔尖创新人才培育计划资助项目(2019000692);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72172-145,71932002);国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BGL224);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9212020).

摘　　要：灾害发生后受灾人员心理恐慌程度随着救援等待时间延长而增加,给现实救援工作的开展和区域稳定带来了隐患.探讨心理恐慌因素与救援运营成本之间的关系,设计了一个心理干预参与的多时段救援的仿真实验,基于九寨沟地震数据,采用计算机仿真模拟方法进行观察分析.研究发现,心理干预效果受临界点影响且货币成本投入与心理惩罚成本呈负相关关系.Psychological panic level of disaster victims increases with the extension of the waiting time for rescue, which brings hidden dangers to the implementation of real rescue work and regional stability. This paper discusses the relationship between psychological panic factors and rescue operation costs, designs a multi-period rescue simulation experiment involving psychological intervention and uses computer simulation method to observe and analyze the seismic data of Jiuzhaigou. The results verifies that the effect of psychological intervention is affected by the critical point and the monetary cost is negatively correlated with the psychological punishment cost.

关 键 词：恐慌心理 政府干预 应急资源配置 免疫算法 

分 类 号：TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]