基于百度指数的我国新型冠状病毒肺炎网络舆情分析  

Network public sentiment analysis of COVID-19 based on Baidu Index in China

作　　者：黄婕[1] 刘慧[1] 刘维斯[1] 董航[1] 张维蔚[1] 许欢[1] 张周斌[1] HUANG Jie;LIU Hui;LIU Wei-si;DONG Hang;ZHANG Wei-wei;XU Huan;ZHANG Zhou-bin(Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 510440,Guangdong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市疾病预防控制中心,广州510440

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2022年第2期172-177,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的基于百度指数获取网民及媒体对我国新型冠状病毒肺炎的关注度,分析网络舆情特点,探讨科学的舆情引导策略。方法以"新型冠状病毒"为关键词,选取2020-01-20/2021-01-31网民百度搜索指数及媒体指数,结合此期间全国新型冠状病毒肺炎每日新增确诊病例数,通过Spearman相关性分析和趋势分析,观察三者间关系;同时结合百度指数需求分布,分析网络舆情特点。结果网络舆情与新型冠状病毒肺炎每日新增确诊病例数发展趋势相近,网民百度搜索指数与病例数呈正相关(r=0.588,P<0.001)。网络舆情具有快升缓降的特点,主要经历突发、高涨、消退和平稳4个阶段。疫期初期媒体指数上升速度高于网民搜索指数,经高水平波动17 d后陡然下降。网民搜索高峰比媒体报道高峰早10 d出现,并于媒体高峰出现前10 d开始缓慢下降。随着我国疫情的发展,网民由最初对疫情实时动态的关注逐渐延伸至对疫情相关事件如新冠疫苗的关注。结论重大突发疫情发生初期公众关注度高,是舆情风险防控的关键时期。开展早期、实时舆情监测可有效评估网络舆情特点,提高舆情引导的精准性。政府通过媒体迅速、大量地公开信息能积极引导舆情走势,确保健康传播的权威性。Objective To explore the characteristics of network public sentiment of COVID-19 and its guidance strategies by analyzing the attention of netizens and media to COVID-19 based on the Baidu Index(BI) in China. Methods With the key word of“SARS-CoV-2”in BI,the Search Index(SI) and Media Index(MI) were generated from January 20, 2020 to January 31, 2021. In combination with the newly confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China during the same period,the relationship was analyzed by Spearman related analysis and trend analysis. In addition,combined with the demand distribution of BI, the characteristics of network public sentiment were analyzed. Results The trend of network public sentiment was similar to that of newly confirmed cases. Correlation analysis showed that the SI was positively correlated with the Incidence of COVID-19(r=0.588, P<0.001). The trend of network public sentiment was fast rise and slow fall,which mainly went through four stages:sudden,outbreak,fading and stable. At the beginning of COVID-19,the MI increased to the high level immediately,and dropped sharply after 17 days of high-level fluctuation. The SI reached its peak 10 days earlier than that of MI, and began to decline slowly 10 days before the MI peaked. With the development of COVID-19 in China, the netizens transfered their attention from real-time epidemic monitoring to related events such as COVID-19 vaccine. Conclusions The initial stage of major outbreak is a critical period for public sentiment risk prevention and control. Early and real-time public opinion monitoring can effectively evaluate the characteristics of network public sentiment and improve the accuracy of public sentiment guidance. To release authoritative information rapidly and extensively through media can positively guide the trend of public sentiment.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 百度指数 网络舆情 引导 健康传播 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]